Žalgiris Kaunas v Olympiacos: does the Greek schedule open a door at home?

The first European home game of the season brings the reigning champions to Kaunas. The eve filled both injury lists: Milutinov stays in Greece, Williams-Goss misses three rounds. The price has barely moved since Sunday.

Milutinov stays home, Dunston boards the plane

A thigh tendon problem rules Nikola Milutinov out of both games this week, in Kaunas and then Bologna. He barely counted in round one anyway: nine minutes at Baskonia, two points. Last season he averaged 10.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and a 19.4 PIR, and led the EuroLeague in rebounding. To plug the gap, Olympiacos made Bryant Dunston’s signing official on Monday, a forty-year-old former Žalgiris player, and put him straight on the plane to Lithuania.

Four games in six days for the champions

The Greek schedule shows no mercy: Baskonia on Thursday, the Greek Super Cup at the weekend, Kaunas as a fourth game in six days, then Bologna on Thursday. Bartzokas said it before the flight: “this is no longer sport, it looks more like a roll of the dice: we play without knowing what shape we are in”. His week holds no training session, only shooting and video.

The 106-89 at Baskonia remains a serious opening statement, and the Greek Super Cup, a fifth in a row, came and went in between. Bartzokas was already asking for more defensive cohesion after Baskonia; this rhythm leaves him nothing to build it with.

Kaunas looks for a creator

Nigel Williams-Goss felt his hamstrings in round one and will miss rounds 2 to 4, after a 14-point, 6-assist game in Belgrade. Saben Lee, nursing the same problem, is a call for game time. Akobundu-Ehiogu and Sirvydis are available, and so is Valančiūnas. After the 83-77 in Belgrade, Žalgiris rolled past Šiauliai in the league with more than 100 points, but without a confirmed ball handler, attacking the pressure of Walkup, Dorsey or Fournier looks like a costly exercise.

Dunston warns from the Greek camp: “Žalgiris has a lot of talented players who dictate the tempo […] it will be hard”.

A Greek history, one Lithuanian night

Olympiacos has won four of the last five meetings. The Greeks’ last trip to Kaunas still ended 99-94 for the hosts after two overtimes.

At 2.25, the pick survives the injury list

My pick went in on Sunday: Žalgiris to win at 2.25 with Betano, for 1 unit ($100), a price that asks for 44.4 per cent. On Monday the home win was still 2.23 with Unibet and Olympiacos 1.71 with 1xbet: neither piece of news from the eve is in the price.

I am not touching the selection or the stake. The loss of Williams-Goss cools my read, the loss of Milutinov warms it, and the price has not picked a side. One unit was the right size for a game with this many scenarios; it still is. The Kelly calculator helps you match a stake to your own estimate, and this bet will join my public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

91-93: Žalgiris fall by two

Žalgiris go down 91-93 at the Zalgirio Arena. Olympiacos make it five wins from the last six meetings, and their fourth game in six days ends two points clear. The match finished where the price said it would: tight, and on the favourite’s side.

My Žalgiris win at 2.25 with Betano is lost: 1 unit, $100. Ninety-one points at home against the champions, a two-point margin: play this game ten times and Žalgiris take a few of them, but not this one. The price had barely moved since Sunday, and it was right. The lost unit goes on the public record.