Five straight defeats and Marseille are still favourites at Troyes

Sixteenth hosts seventeenth in Ligue 1, and the visitors are the favourites. On Marseille’s squad depth, fair enough. In the reality of the moment, it is up for debate: five straight defeats, the last against Paris Saint-Germain (1-2) in late September, and a starting eleven to rebuild at the Stade de l’Aube on Sunday. The market has not let go of OM. I have.

Five defeats, and still favourites

Marseille have lost five in a row across competitions: Monaco, Paris FC and Rennes in Ligue 1, Beşiktaş in the Europa League (1-4), then Paris Saint-Germain (1-2). Three points from five rounds, seventeenth. Sports.fr reports real worry in the club’s entourage ahead of this trip. On Friday, Bruno Genesio called it an “emergency”: four straight Ligue 1 defeats to stop, and eight matches to play in under a month. On Saturday he insisted he was “not worn out”, “reassured” by the break’s exchange with president Stéphane Richard. Troyes do not profit from the chaos either: four points, one win (2-1 at Lorient), and a goal difference of -7.

The market holds its line: 1.93 for OM with Betano on Friday, Troyes and the draw at 4.04 with 1xbet on Saturday. At that price, a Marseille win is rated a little better than even money, barely.

Weah suspended, Højbjerg out: the right flank gets rebuilt

Marseille’s team list reads like a post-break infirmary. Højbjerg has a thigh lesion, picked up with Denmark, and should be out for around two weeks: he misses Troyes. Weah is suspended after his red card against Paris Saint-Germain. Cornelius is out for several months (hip). Among the returns, Genesio says he can count on Gouiri, Abdelli and Harit, perhaps even on Kondogbia, back with the group; Nnadi is fit. Meïté turned an ankle on Wednesday but should make the squad, and Egan-Riley remains a doubt (ankle).

In the probable elevens, Bezahaf or U. Garcia covers for Weah, and the front line stays Maupay – Moumbagna: Gouiri does not appear in it yet. The right lane and the first midfield relay change on the same weekend. For Troyes, that is where to press: a new relay, a build-up still being bedded in, and the home block can pick its moment.

Troyes defend too badly to aim for the win

The 2-6 against Strasbourg at the Stade de l’Aube sums up Troyes’ problem: points taken at Lorient, then 0-2 at Lille, 0-2 at Angers, and that 2-6 in front of their own fans. On the injury list, Titi and Boura are out, Boura for several weeks (hip); Gozzi and Ifnaoui, back in training, are ruled out by part of the press and kept until the last minute by the rest; Kone stays doubtful, and Phliponeau returns to the group. Ouzenadji, announced as injured, still starts in the press elevens.

And history does not help: across the last five meetings, Troyes have taken a single point off Marseille, a 1-1 in 2022; the other four ended in defeats, including a 2-3 at home in 2018. A Troyes win is a bet on something that has not happened in the last five meetings.

The recent form of both teams, friendly included:

My bet: Troyes or draw at 1.978

I take the double chance Troyes or draw with 1xbet: Troyes win or draw, the bet wins; OM win, it loses. At 1.978, the market puts that scenario at about even money; I make it 56%. The stake goes to 1.25 units, that is $125, for a net gain of $122.25 if Troyes take at least a point.

Two caveats: the doubtful players on both sides can still change by Sunday, and the talent in the Marseille squad is real. A nominal favourite with five straight defeats and a rebuilt flank: that is the gap I am playing. The stake is worked out with the Kelly calculator and the result goes into the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Harit breaks it open, Marseille breathe: the double chance falls

Final score: Troyes 0-2 Marseille. The score held for fifty minutes, then Harit broke the evening open with a volley at the back post from an Emerson cross. Abdelli sealed it in stoppage time (90+8), from a penalty won by the pressing of Moumbagna on a mix-up between a Troyes defender and their keeper. A first Marseille win since 21 August: OM climb out of the red zone, thirteenth on six points; Troyes slip to seventeenth, four points. The rebuilt flank I wanted to see under pressure held its evening: first professional starts for Bezahaf and Kamissoko, the latter going off with cramp on 73 minutes.

The bet loses: Troyes or draw, the double chance at 1.978 with 1xbet, 1.25 units, $125 gone. I was playing a nominal favourite on five straight defeats and a rebuilt eleven; the eleven answered, Harit did too, and Troyes never weighed enough to take a point from it. The market put the scenario at about one chance in two, and it read the state of this OM better than I did. The loss goes to the public record, as always.