Belgium – Turkey: Montella under “istifa” chants, Belgium at 1.50

On Monday night in Bursa, as soon as Italy scored their third, the stand started chanting “istifa”, resignation, aimed at head coach Montella and federation president Hacıosmanoğlu, who left his seat before the end of the 1-4. Asked about resigning, Montella brushed the question aside: he believes in the work done. On Friday, the same Türkiye turn up at the Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Liège with zero points.

Belgium come out of a nearly clean window: a 2-0 win in Italy, a 0-1 home defeat against France. The market prices them at 1.55; I read the game the same way, and that is the whole problem with this bet.

A group already split in two

After two rounds, the group has broken in two: France pull away, Türkiye fall behind.

Türkiye have lost both games at home, 0-1 against France and 1-4 against Italy, and sit behind an Italian side they had just watched win on their own pitch.

A Turkish midfield in pieces

• Hakan Çalhanoğlu: a strain in the right inner thigh, off the squad list, announced by Inter.
• Kenan Yıldız: injured, off the list.
• Orkun Kökçü: withdrawn from the list by the Turkish federation and treated at his club, a sore toe.
• Emirhan Topçu: pain, absent from the 29 September session; Mert Müldür (knee) and Rıdvan Yılmaz (groin) are also reported injured.

A relay midfielder is the player who wins the ball back and restarts play through the middle. Without Çalhanoğlu or Kökçü, Turkish build-up will go long, and the second balls will drop to a settled Belgian defence. I think that hole in midfield will weigh heavier on Friday than the 1-4 in Bursa. On Thursday the federation padded the squad with two U21 players, Emirhan İlkhan and Yusuf Akçiçek: two days before kick-off, the sign of a thin squad. On Friday that rebuilt midfield has a face: Yüksek and Elmaz start in the middle, Güler behind Yılmaz.

What van Bommel has already built

Appointed on 15 August and tied to Euro 2028, Mark van Bommel called up 28 players on 18 September: without Courtois (withdrawn), Witsel or Sels (international retirements), Meunier, Saelemaekers or Doku (injured). Amadou Onana, cruciate ligament, stays out of the group, and Trossard, nursing a heel, does not start.

Thursday’s debate sits in midfield: Steven Defour picks Roméo Lavia over Raskin. Van Bommel did not follow him: in the official line-up, Vanaken starts alongside Tielemans through the middle, Lukebakio replaces Moreira on a wing, and De Bruyne starts at ten behind De Ketelaere, with Godts in the front three.

Sclessin sold out

Sclessin is full, and the Belgian federation chose this return to Liège: the Red Devils have delivered two exhibitions there, 9-0 against Gibraltar in 2017, 7-0 against Liechtenstein in 2025. Belgium must win to keep second place, and the ground leans their way.

Belgium at 1.55: the balance of power is already priced in

Belgium were priced at 1.50 when the bet was taken; they have drifted out to 1.55 at Betano on Thursday, while Türkiye shortened from 6.20 to 5.60. At 1.55, the market gives Belgium slightly less than two chances in three; I still make it 67 %.

My probability and the market’s matched at the take: the stake fell to the minimum, 0.25 units, or $25. Belgium win, the bet pays $12.50; a draw or a Turkish win, it loses $25. The method follows quarter Kelly, and this bet with no net value still joins my public record, because that is where we measure whether my reading beats the market’s.

The winning scenario: Belgium settle into their block and De Bruyne finds the gaps between rebuilt Turkish lines. The losing scenario: Türkiye, sat in a low block, hold the draw that would relaunch them in this group.

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

De Bruyne opened, Belgium never let go

Belgium won 3-0 at Sclessin. De Bruyne opened the scoring early in the first half, and the Belgian block closed the game the way I wrote it: Turkey never reopened it. The rebuilt midfield I saw in trouble spent the evening chasing the ball.

The bet lands: Belgium to win, taken at 1.50 with Betano, minimum stake of 0.25 units, +$12.50. No edge at the price, so the gain matches the stake; the reading of the game was right.