Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Poland: the favourites without their striker

In Warsaw on Friday, Lewandowski scored a hat-trick in the 6-0 over Romania. Right after, Jan Urban confirmed that his striker, caught by the card count, will not play in Zenica on Monday. Poland arrive at the Bilino Polje with Warsaw still in their eyes, without their goalscorer, in front of 15,600 sold tickets.

A 6-0 to read against ten men

Romania played with ten from the 22nd minute on Friday, and the score says more about the punishment than the gap between the teams. The rest of the window shows a different Poland: 0-0 against this Bosnia in Warsaw, then a 3-1 defeat in Sweden. On Friday everything went in; everywhere else, Poland keep searching.

What Lewandowski changes, in my reading: the fixed point in the box. Without him, Poland’s attack plays on the ground, and a low block like Bosnia’s shuts down the middle far more easily. Zieliński and Bednarek, both starting on Monday, scored on Friday; the solutions remain, the reference up front does not: the official XI has Żukowski alone up front, Świderski and Szymański behind him.

• Lewandowski, suspended after his second yellow, picked up against Romania; he left the squad on Saturday and has flown back to Chicago Fire.
• Benedyczak (broken wrist) and Rózga (muscle), ruled out before the window.
• Ziółkowski, injured, withdrawn from the squad.

Bosnia unbeaten, already in mourning for their captain

On the Bosnian side, the momentum runs the other way: five points and no defeat in this group, a 1-1 grabbed against Sweden on Friday at the Bilino Polje. Barbarez speaks of great confidence; the local press calls for calm. On Friday night the stadium mostly said goodbye to Edin Džeko, 40 years old and 151 caps, saluted in the 11th minute, his shirt number, by a standing crowd. The farewell ended on a draw; Monday brings Bosnia’s first big test without him, with Demirović and Tabaković up front. At the Bilino Polje they have lost once in their last eight home games, but the last three have all ended level; Poland have won only two of their last eight on the road, against Malta and Lithuania.

Three recent meetings between the two:

A bet placed before the market caught up

The market has turned towards Bosnia and the draw: Poland have drifted from 2.27 to 2.37 at the best price, Bosnia tightened from 3.40 to 3.20 with 10BET, and the double chance Bosnia or draw now pays only 1.63 with Unibet, against the 1.75 I took on Saturday. At 1.75, the market gave 57.1 percent to Bosnia not losing. I make it 62 percent.

Bosnia or the draw at 1.75

What wins this bet: a Bosnian block that shuts down the middle, a Poland without a target man growing frustrated in front of goal; a match that closes up ends level, and the draw is already in the bet. What loses it: a Polish evening like Friday’s, when everything goes in even without the boss. Stake: 1.25 units, $125, on the double chance at 1.75 with 888Sport. Bosnia or draw at the end of normal time: +$93.75. Poland win: -$125.

The Kelly calculator converts stakes into units, and the public record keeps my tips, won and lost. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Bašić’s penalty on 84 minutes

Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Poland 1-0 at the Bilino Polje, from an Ivan Bašić penalty on 84 minutes. The game ran as I read it: without Lewandowski, Poland passed and passed in front of a closed block, never found the axis, and Zenica waited for the foul in the box. Bosnia, the only unbeaten team left in this group, move second behind Sweden.

My bet, Bosnia or draw at 1.75, has won, and the draw was not even needed: 1.25 units, $93.75, the biggest stake of my window, paid like the others. Poland leave with the memory of the 6-0 and one win from four.