Bosnia host a weakened Sweden in Zenica for Dzeko’s farewell

On Friday in Zenica, the Bilino Polje will be full for what the federation is billing as a farewell: tickets sold out in fourteen minutes. Edin Dzeko, 40, captain and the country’s most-capped player, plays his last international match against Sweden there, announced back on 3 September. Sweden arrive top of the group with six points, ahead of an unbeaten Bosnia on four.

Dzeko starts for his Zenica farewell

Barbarez has made no special request over his captain’s playing time: “I hope he plays the whole match, scores and that we win”, he said. Dzeko has travelled with the squad and trained with the group without being fielded: the official line-up has him starting, alongside Demirović, for this match which a drone show will close out. Samed Baždar (Sint-Truiden), back from a slight injury, joins the competition.

Five more sick: eight missing on the Swedish side

• Emil Holm (right-back) left the squad on 26 September with a thigh injury picked up against Romania;
• Hjalmar Ekdal and Alexander Isak, “slight injuries” according to the federation, withdrew the next day, with no replacements called up;
• Yasin Ayari, Benjamin Nygren, Gustaf Lagerbielke, Elliot Stroud and Patrik Wålemark are ill and stay in Sweden; Stroud and Wålemark, the worst hit, will also miss Monday’s game in Romania;
• after Eric Smith’s recall on Wednesday, four reinforcements have been called up: Felix Beijmo, Samuel Dahl, Hugo Bolin and Ken Sema.

Team doctor Jonas Werner talks of “possible measures to limit the spread of infection”. Sweden held their last session at home before travelling to Sarajevo, with no session in Bosnia: in a match that comes down to freshness, that detail counts.

Gyökeres scores, Bosnia blow hot and cold

Sweden’s campaign has one face: two wins, and Gyökeres scoring in both, against Romania and then in front of 24,637 spectators against Poland. But without Ekdal, Holm or Lagerbielke, the Swedish back line is being rebuilt piece by piece, Lindelöf, Starfelt and Skoglund forming the back three, and Bosnia, carried by a full stadium, have the tools to trouble it.

Bosnia have blown hot and cold: mute against Poland, let loose in Romania. The two nations have not met since 2010: no direct reference, this match reads through the absences and the form.

Both teams to score at 1.615: the price is already right

On Thursday, Sweden were priced at 2.45 with Bet365 (2.10 at the opening); Bosnia had shortened from 3.80 to 3.10. That move started before the five sick players were announced: the market may not have finished taking it in.

I take both teams to score at 1.615 with Betway. I give a goal at each end a 66% chance; the price implies 62, and my estimate no longer sits far enough from the market’s: minimum stake, 0.25 units ($25), at a quarter Kelly. Both teams score: +$15.38. One of them fails to score: −$25. Sweden’s outbreak cuts both ways for this bet: fewer creators around Gyökeres, but a back line being rebuilt against a Bosnia carried by their stadium. The official line-ups follow that double reading: both teams start with their two strikers. The losing scenario exists: it is the Poland match, a Bosnia who do not open the scoring.

This pick joins my public record, whatever the outcome. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Gyökeres scored, Zenica answered

Gyökeres opened for Sweden, Alajbegović equalised late for Bosnia: 1-1 at the Bilino Polje, and Džeko’s farewell ends in a draw, without the parting goal. The two-sided reading I took from Sweden’s injury crisis played out as written: fewer creators around Gyökeres, a rebuilt defence facing a full stadium.

Both teams to score, taken at 1.615 with Betway, wins: minimum stake, 0.25 units, +$15.38. Each side found the net once; the price had this game measured, and my stake followed it.