No crowd in Rijeka: England arrive as favourites against a Croatia in rebuild

No tickets on sale: for racist behaviour from their support at the quarter-final against France in March 2025, UEFA has ordered Croatia to host England behind closed doors. A hundred seats for members of the England Supporters Travel Club, Croatian children invited by the federation, empty stands beyond that. These two have met in this setting before: in 2018, a closed-doors meeting in Rijeka finished 0-0.

A very real Nations League fixture remains, with both sides on 3 points and the top two of the group going to the quarter-finals in March 2027. England arrive with three straight wins in the head-to-head; Croatia have not beaten them since the 2018 semi-final, and England have won only once in Croatia, 4-1 in 2008 under Slaven Bilić, who now leads the home side.

Croatia’s squad is whole again, Gvardiol in the balance

The virus that emptied their camp last week has cleared: everyone has trained together again in Rijeka, Modrić and Stanišić included, with Baturina available again after missing the first two matches. Two injured players remain, Juranović (Achilles tendon) and Erlić (foot), with no return date: the defence that conceded four in Seville on Tuesday has no margin, and Bilić admitted his players had made it easy for Spain.

The Croatian press expects the strongest available XI, with two calls left: Gvardiol, 180 minutes in his legs over three days, with Šutalo ready to stand in, and the striker’s spot, between Budimir and Matanović. Beljo, who scored in Seville, stays in the running.

Prague smiled on England, against ten men

The 2-0 in Prague owes its calm to an early red card: Šulc sent off in the 25th minute, then goals from Gordon, set up by Alexander-Arnold, and Kane. The FA praised the return of Alexander-Arnold and the second-half intensity; I note the win was built against ten men for over an hour. Defensive solidity remains the English question of the autumn: four clean sheets in 13 matches in 2026.

Tuchel’s squad has shrunk again: Nico O’Reilly has left it with a physical problem, and no replacement has been called up; Lewis Hall is expected on the left flank. That makes six withdrawals since 18 September, alongside Rice, Palmer, Rashford, Mainoo and Livramento. Bellingham, who came off in Prague with a minor knock, is still hoped for on Saturday; there has been no news on Konsa since 29 September. Tuchel has dismissed any rotation, calling it madness. Only the goalkeeper divides the forecasts: the Standard backs Pickford to return between the posts, others keep Trafford, who has started both matches so far.

England to win at 1.93: the market keeps shortening

I lean England, 52 %, where the price implies just under one in two. My pick: an England win in ninety minutes at 1.93 with Betano, a minimum stake of 0.25 units, $25 to win $23.25; a draw or a Croatian win and the bet is lost. Since I placed it, the market has kept shortening England: the best price on the board is now 1.91 with 10BET, against 2.12 at the opening. The value was close to nil when I took the price, and there is less of it now.

The goals markets move the same way: both teams to score at 1.62 with BetMGM, from 1.78 at the opening, and over 2.5 goals at 1.69 with 10BET, from 1.99. Croatia or draw, the double chance, has drifted to 2.02 with 1xbet. Size the stake with the Kelly calculator; every result goes on the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Seven goals in an empty stadium

England won 7-0 in a deserted Stadion Rujevica. Their fourth straight win in this fixture, and Croatia have now conceded eleven goals in two games after the 4-1 in Seville. England move on to six points, Croatia stay on three.

My England win pick at 1.93 with Betano is a winner: minimum stake, $25 for a $23.25 profit. With no edge at the take I had kept the stake small, and the market kept moving, England shortening to 1.78 before kick-off. The call was on the right side; a seven-goal margin was written neither in the odds nor in my 52%.