Croatia vs Spain: can a broken Croatia keep the world champions within one goal?

Luka Modrić needed twenty years to meet this feeling. “For the first time in twenty years, I feel shame”, said the Croatia captain after the 7-0 against England in Rijeka, the heaviest defeat in the country’s history. Three days later, world champions Spain arrive at Poljud. Slaven Bilić promises a real, manly match to make up for it. The fixture list could hardly have picked a worse opponent for redemption.

Croatia at the bottom, with three days to get up

Three points from three games: the 2-1 won in Prague, then 1-4 in Seville and 0-7 at home to England, four goals down by half-time. Bilić publicly apologised for forgetting to put his hand on his heart during the anthem, one more row a proud country did not need. Modrić refuses to look for scapegoats and asks his team to stay together.

In Monday’s press conference, Bilić said he could see a few small weaknesses in Spain’s game, the ones England exposed; the official teamsheet confirms the expected names: Modrić and Kovačić start, Gvardiol lines up in defence, Perišić on the wing and Matanović alone up front. The treatment room keeps filling: Martin Erlić, injured, and Josip Juranović, ill, are out. The words are in place; the schedule is not: three days of recovery against a side that has rotated for ten days.

Spain rotate, and that is where the game opens

Nine points from nine, and a draw would be enough to reach the quarter-finals. Luis de la Fuente has confirmed rotations while keeping the team’s structure: four games in ten days have to be managed. His squad has thinned during the window:

• Eric García, knee injured in the warm-up at Wembley;
• Grimaldo and Nico Williams, hamstring;
• Ferran Torres, left ankle, replaced by Carlos Espí.

Pedro Porro had already dropped out of the list before the camp. The teamsheet has settled it: Fermín López, tipped for a first competitive start, stays out of the XI; Baena and Pubill start, and the spine does not move: Rodri, Pedri, Lamine Yamal and Oyarzabal all in the first eleven. A patched Spain remains the Spain of Seville, the one leading 4-1.

Two Croatian holds in five meetings

The last five meetings split into two beatings and two matches Croatia got points from:

Twice, Croatia held or beat Spain in front of their own crowd; in the other three, they conceded at least three goals.

What the price says

On Sunday Spain traded at 1.44 with 10BET; by Monday they had shortened to 1.29 with Betano. Croatia have drifted the other way, from 9.00 to 9.7 with 1xbet. In twenty-four hours the market has leaned further towards Spain. On the winner, the price looks right to me. My bet is elsewhere.

My bet: Croatia +1.5 at 2.00

I took Croatia +1.5 at 2.00 with Bet365 on Sunday, 0.75 units ($75); the price has since drifted to 2.075 with the same bookmaker, and my bet stays at 2.00. The losing scenario is one Croatia lived twice in eight days: 1-4 in Seville, 0-7 in Rijeka. The winning one: a team camped in front of its own crowd against a Spain that a draw suits. I still make Croatia +1.5 54%; the market is down to 46.0%.

In plain terms: Croatia win, draw or lose by one goal, and the bet pays $75. They collapse by two goals or more, as in Seville, and it is down. The stake follows my staking rule; the bet joins my public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Poljud on its feet, then the Merino double

Croatia lost 1-2 in Split, but for a full half it looked like redemption. Perišić headed them in front on 17 minutes, onto a rebound from Unai Simón; 1-0 at the break, Poljud standing. Merino, on for Baena at half-time, equalised on 61 and won the game on 88, two left-footed finishes. Perišić went off on a second yellow on 79, and Spain head for the quarter-finals on four wins from four.

My bet was against the collapse: Croatia winning, drawing or losing by one. They lost by one, exactly, and the +1.5 at 2.00 with Bet365 pays $75. I expected a team camped in front of its own crowd against a Spain happy with a draw; Spain had 72% of the ball, but the margin stayed where the bet needed it. The redemption lasted an hour; the second Croatian goal never came.