Denmark missing nine, Portugal unsure of one: does Ronaldo start at Parken?

Nine. Denmark carry nine withdrawals into Thursday night at a sold-out Parken. “We have never seen anything like it,” Brian Riemer told the press on Tuesday; “we are very far down the list.” His own verdict followed: his team are not favourites, even at home, four days after beating Wales comfortably.

Nine Danish withdrawals, stopgap call-ups

The spine of the team goes with them:

• eight injured players: Dolberg, whose knee “exploded” in Riemer’s words; Dorgu, helped off against Wales and sent back to Manchester United with no direct deputy at left-back; Osula, Mathias Jensen, Andreas Christensen, Bah, Grønbæk; and Eriksen, not in the squad and without a club according to TV2, injured according to bold.dk;
• Victor Bak, ill, already back at FC Midtjylland;
• Skov Olsen and Nartey called up as cover, the second only just back from injury.

Five players have left the camp since Monday. On Tuesday Riemer was preparing changes, with the numbers to back it: “11 players cannot play four matches in 11 days.” On Wednesday he shut the door on mass rotation: “you do not change ten players for a match like this”, the best team available, “as many minutes as possible”, 23 players “100% ready”. Denmark’s best eleven will play; it is still an eleven missing nine men. The Danish press still lines up a 4-2-3-1 with Damsgaard, Daramy and Daghim behind Højlund, Isaksen left out: a back line rebuilt the week of a summit shows at the first duel.

Portugal’s dressing room stirs, the depth stays

Ronaldo, 41, watched the Norway game from the bench for the first time since 2008 and went home without applauding the away end. He has not completed a full squad session since Saturday: on Tuesday he walked off the pitch in Malmö for gym work, the federation citing missing equipment in the stadium gym and no physical problem. A Bola, from Copenhagen, has Gonçalo Ramos ahead for the striker’s role. The official eleven proves him right: Gonçalo Ramos starts, with Cancelo and Vitinha; Dalot stays on the bench. The disagreement with Jorge Jesus was aired again in a Tuesday evening conversation, “positive steps” in the press; the federation president travelled to Copenhagen himself.

The substance holds up better than the noise. Bruno Fernandes is back and starts after missing Norway. In Oslo, Félix and Gonçalo Ramos scored, and Portugal won without Ronaldo in the eleven. The only confirmed absence on the Portuguese side is Francisco Conceição.

The price has already digested Denmark’s crisis

Six results to keep in mind before this one:

Two wins from two for Portugal in this Nations League, one defeat and one win for Denmark: the table, six points against three, slopes the same way. In March 2025 they traded blow for blow, 1-0 in Copenhagen then 5-2 in the return; that gap says little about October.

The market had moved before this update. Denmark drifted from 3.70 to 3.50 with Bet365, Portugal from 2.10 to 2.15 with Bwin ES, the draw holds at 3.90; at Wednesday’s reading, the three prices had not moved. At 2.15, the market gives Portugal slightly less than a coin flip in 90 minutes: the Danish crisis is in the price, and so is the doubt over Portugal’s eleven. The one move of the day points to goals: over 2.75 has shortened from 2.33 to 1.875 with Bet365, both teams to score from 1.83 to 1.62 with Unibet.

The pick: Portugal in 90 minutes

My pick: Portugal to win in regular time, at 2.15 with Bwin ES. It pays +$86.25 on a $75 stake. A draw or a Denmark win loses the $75.

I make Portugal 50% where the odds imply 46.5. Denmark will field their best available eleven, Riemer promised on Wednesday, and that eleven is still missing nine men. In Riemer’s own words, Portugal mean very high quality in every position; Ronaldo, on the bench for the second game running, does not change that. The double chance at 1.33 pays nothing; the outright does. My probability, blended with the market’s, sets the stake: 0.75 units, $75.

The danger is the draw at 3.90: a Parken on its feet, a Danish block sitting deep, a Portugal managing its lead in the table. The pick holds if Portugal keep the ball and options on the bench, as they did in Oslo.

To turn your own probability into a stake, the Kelly calculator does the maths; my results, wins and losses, are on the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Portugal win where they had lost: 4-2

Portugal win 4-2 at the Parken, where they had gone down 1-0 in March 2025, and stand alone at the top of Group D with nine points from nine. Denmark fielded their strongest available eleven, as Riemer promised; stripped of nine players, they conceded four in front of their own crowd. The Danish injury crisis was in the price before kick-off; it ended up in the scoreline.

My bet, Portugal in 90 minutes at 2.15 with Bwin ES, wins: 0.75 units, $75 staked, $86.25 in profit. I made Portugal 50% where the odds promised 46.5%: the gap was thin, and it was enough.