Luxembourg favourites in Tallinn, Estonia the group’s only unbeaten side

Iceland lead the group on 4 points; behind them, Luxembourg (3) also sit ahead of Estonia (2) with the bookmakers. Estonia are the only unbeaten side after two matchdays, with two draws taken away from home, and they come back to the A. Le Coq Arena with the market still making Luxembourg favourites: 2.55 with Unibet on Friday, against 2.65 when I first wrote this up. The Luxembourg treatment table has not moved the price. I will take the other side.

Two away draws, and a defence that holds

Estonia opened with a 1-1 in Iceland, Paskotši scoring, then a 0-0 in Plovdiv: a Poom shot against the post, a Kristal goal ruled out for a marginal offside, a Hein save from Gruev. Jürgen Henn has built a 3-5-2 around a settled core: Paskotši, Poom, Schjønning-Larsen, Käit and Hein have played every minute of the campaign. One goal scored in two games, and Henn knows it: “if we start believing we have arrived, the carpet gets pulled quickly”.

The right flank is where it moves: the English press reports Robi Saarma went off injured against Bulgaria, with Frank Liivak in line to replace him, and a projected XI pairs Tõugjas and Mets in the back three. The only certain absentee is Vlasiy Sinyavskiy, knee, return expected in late October.

Luxembourg keep losing men, and the market does not blink

The first win in their history over Bulgaria, 2-1 in Plovdiv, then a hiding at home: 0-3 against Iceland, with the captain going off with a thigh problem in the 13th minute. Laurent Jans has no return date and remains the number one uncertainty of the match; the armband has already gone to Barreiro.

The list has grown again:

• Danel Sinani, cruciate ligaments and meniscus, around nine months out;
• Christopher Martins, groin, return hoped for in November;
• Seid Korać, cruciate ligaments in the right knee, around six months, Dzogovic called up as a precaution;
• Olivier Thill, muscle injury, has left the squad;
• Mathias Olesen and Enzo dos Santos, not yet at 100 %.

To plug the gaps, Jeff Strasser called up Sofiane Ikene of Rot-Weiß Erfurt on Tuesday. “I cannot invent a player”, says Strasser, who is considering U21 call-ups. After the 0-3 he saw it plainly: “we lost against the strongest team of the group”, with possession that never turns into chances. Paul Philipp speaks of “overloaded key players”.

Three trips in eight days for Luxembourg

Plovdiv on the 26th, Luxembourg on the 29th, Tallinn on the 3rd, then Bulgaria at home on the 6th: three matches in eight days with the Baltics at the end of it. Estonia, in contrast, play two home games after two away trips. In League C only the group winner goes up to League B and the weakest sides go down to D; the two teams have not met since 2005, a 2-0 Estonia win in World Cup qualifying.

Estonia or draw at 1.55: I am not forcing the win

With one goal in two games, I will not dress Estonia up as an attacking favourite. The double chance 1X pays for resilience: I make Estonia or the draw 69 %, the market has it at 63.3, and at 1.55 with Betway that is the one real gap I can find on this fixture.

The stake stays at 1.25 units, $125 for a $68.75 profit if Estonia win or draw; a Luxembourg win loses it. The double chance also collects on a draw, the result that serves Estonia best. The market, though, has followed Luxembourg: 2.55 now, while Estonia have drifted to 3.05 with Betano; my pick stays at the 1.55 I took. Small scores remain the expected scenario: under 2.5 goals pays 1.64 with Unibet. Jans, nursing a thigh problem, is the uncertainty to watch until the line-ups. Size the stake with the Kelly calculator; the result goes on the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

1-0, the low score as called

Estonia beat Luxembourg 1-0 at the A. Le Coq Arena, still unbeaten in the group. Two goals scored, one conceded across three Nations League matches: the low score I called came exactly, and Luxembourg, without Jans in the starting eleven, did not score either, a second straight game without a goal. Estonia move on to five points, past Luxembourg.

My Estonia or draw pick at 1.55 with Betway won without waiting for the draw: 1.25 units, $125 for a $68.75 gain. I made the double chance 69% against the market’s 63; the gap I saw paid out, along with the small-score scenario.