Estonia vs Iceland: the favourites arrive without their creators

On 26 September, Estonia left Reykjavík with a 1-1. Since then Iceland have stacked up a 3-0 in Luxembourg and a 3-0 against Bulgaria, and the market has hardened them from 1.73 to 1.65, with a slight easing back to 1.67 on Monday. That form is real. What I am playing is what Iceland leave at home: in Tallinn on Tuesday they travel without part of what wins them games, and their away record in this competition offers no protection, seven group-phase away trips lost out of eleven.

Five of Iceland’s seven goals go through Óskarsson

Five of Iceland’s seven goals this window have Óskarsson at the end of them: three goals, two assists. Around him, the team sheet has torn:

• Mikael Egill Ellertsson, suspended after his second yellow against Bulgaria, misses the trip to Tallinn;
• so do Albert Guðmundsson, injured since the first game, and Stefán Teitur Þórðarson, out since the Luxembourg match;
• Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson, hurt against Bulgaria, has gone for a scan: his head coach calls him unlikely to play, though some of the press still expect him to start;
• four reinforcements have been called up to plug the gaps: Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason, Alfons Sampsted, Sævar Atli Magnússon and Þórir Jóhann Helgason, called up to cover for Albert Guðmundsson.

A game that funnels through one man can be planned against: double up on him, cut the passes to him. Shorn of its other creators, Iceland become easier to read for a low block that holds its shape.

Estonia score early and shut the door

Five games unbeaten, four clean sheets, three home wins in a row. Against Luxembourg on Friday, Rasmus Peetson scored early and took his federation’s player-of-the-match award (1-0). The Estonian plan will not change: score early, hold behind the ball, let the opponent chase.

Captain Karol Mets is suspended, with Erko Jonne Tõugjas the candidate to step into the back line. According to the press, goalkeeper Karl Hein left the squad on Saturday with an adductor injury and midfielder Vlasiy Sinyavskiy is unavailable: Evert Grünvald has been called up as cover. The official sheet confirms the reshaped back line: Tõugjas starts, and Matvei Igonen, unbeaten in goal against Luxembourg, will keep goal. At the other end, Óskarsson and Guðjohnsen lead the Iceland attack.

“The Estonians have the recipe against Iceland”

That is pundit Kári Árnason, in the Icelandic press, and the only two meetings between these sides back him up: 1-1 in Iceland last week, 1-1 in a 2023 friendly.

A draw suits Iceland in the table too: seven points against five before kick-off, eight against six after it. The leaders do not need to force the game, and that is precisely what this bet covers.

The bet: Estonia or draw at 2.375

I make Estonia or the draw 47 per cent. At 2.375 with Bet365, the price shows barely more than two in five, and it has drifted from 2.20: the market believes in Iceland more than at the start. That confidence is what I am playing against.

The double chance covers the draw, the result the two runs of form point to most. Stake: 1 unit ($100). Estonia win or hold: +$137.50. Iceland win: −$100. The stake is sized to the risk; the Kelly calculator runs it with you, and the bet will join my public record, won or lost.

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

The second draw in a row between them

No goals in Tallinn, and a depleted Iceland never came close: 62% of possession, two shots on target, a Haraldsson strike on 82 and a Willumsson effort in stoppage time. Estonia, camped in a 3-5-2 in front of Igonen, played set pieces and nothing else, and it was enough. 0-0: after the 1-1 in Reykjavík, these two still cannot be separated; Iceland keep first place (eight points), Estonia stay second (six).

My bet covered Estonia and the draw: the draw is what cashed it. The double chance at 2.375 with Bet365 pays $137.50 for one unit. I was betting against a market more confident in Iceland than at the open; that Iceland never found a way through a block that gave almost nothing away.