France vs Belgium: first place on the line, key men out on both sides

Seven points against six: first place in Group A1 is on the line at the Stade de France on Monday. Both teams come out of a solid international window, France drawing with Italy (1-1), Belgium thumping Turkey (3-0), and both arrive with absences that change the game.

Absences that do not weigh the same

• Kylian Mbappé, injured in his left knee, left the squad at the start of the window and misses the whole break.
• Dayot Upamecano, sent off in the 85th minute against Italy, serves his ban on Monday and has already returned to Munich.
• Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, both booked on Friday against Turkey, are suspended for the trip to Paris.

The scales tip towards France: Les Bleus have lived without Mbappé since the start of the window and remain unbeaten in the group, while Belgium lose their creator and their captain in one go. At Clairefontaine, Zidane confirmed on Sunday that he will rotate: “there will be changes… we are 23, I want to use everyone”. His starting XI is out: Restes in goal, Koundé, Yoro, Lacroix and Diouf across the back, Akliouche, Koné and Camavinga in midfield, Dembélé, Lepaul and Barcola up front.

On the Belgian side, Sunday’s training in Tubize went ahead with a full group of 28, nobody injured or off form: Belgium’s problem is not in their legs, it is in midfield.

Who is going to feed Lukaku?

The 3-0 in Liège was a playmaker’s game: De Bruyne scored twice, then De Ketelaere played in Lukaku, who came on in the 61st minute and scored fifteen minutes later. On Monday the target man starts; the passer does not, and neither does the midfielder who launched every move. Van Bommel talks about his “two midfielders down in France” and starts Raskin and Lavia, with Vanaken, to keep the ball; Lukaku leads the line, and he called his own side’s 3-0 over Turkey too much “ping-pong”, with too little control. Trossard, recovered from the bone bruise in his heel and back on late on Friday, does not start: Lukebakio and Moreira take the wings.

Four meetings, three wins by a single goal

On Friday, France went ahead against Italy through Olise’s free kick, before Bastoni equalised. The last four meetings between the two teams all fell the same way:

These teams squeeze each other more than they trade blows, and Monday looks like a game to win, not to dominate.

At 1.55, the market has already done its sums

France are still at 1.57 at the best price, where they opened: the market priced the Belgian suspensions as soon as they were confirmed and has not moved a notch since. My bet stays the one from Thursday, France at 1.55 with 10BET: at that price the market gives them 61.3%. I make France 66%: the gap is real, it is thin, and the stake says so. 0.25 units, $25, the minimum: if France win in normal time, the bet pays $13.75; a draw or a Belgian win loses $25.

It is a readable, poorly paid bet. I log it as such in my public record, and the unit stake calculator shows how to size a bet to your conviction. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Fourteen minutes to turn it all around

France beat Belgium 4-1 at the Stade de France, and this match was decided in fourteen minutes. Lukebakio had put Belgium ahead on 35, played in behind the defence by Lavia, and the visitors still led at the hour mark. Then the bench took over: Doué equalised on 77, Cherki turned the game on 81, Olise added two more, on 88 and in stoppage time. All four French goals came from substitutes.

My scenario of a match to win rather than to dominate lasted three quarters of an hour. Belgium held on as long as their legs did, and the midfield Van Bommel rebuilt collapsed with them. My bet, France in normal time at 1.55, has won: 0.25 unit staked with no clear edge, $13.75 in return. I called it readable and poorly paid before kick-off, and that is what it was.