France vs Italy: Zidane’s first night at the Stade de France, an Italy starting over

The Stade de France will be full on Friday night, around 80,000 spectators with every ticket gone, for Zidane’s first home game as France head coach in Saint-Denis. “It is important to win for the coach’s first match at the Stade de France”, Manu Koné said on Wednesday at Clairefontaine. France arrive top of the group with six points, Italy third with three.

Two 1-0 wins and a clean sheet

France opened their Nations League campaign with two away games, two 1-0 wins, in Türkiye and then Belgium, and no goal conceded. The machine is simple: score once, then shut the game down. The summer told a different story, a World Cup ended by a 0-2 against Spain and then a 4-6 against England; since September, Zidane has taken this team from the other end.

Without Mbappé, where do two goals come from?

Kylian Mbappé, hurt in his left knee in Türkiye on 25 September, gave up on the three matches of this window and flew back to Madrid, with no replacement called up. Friday’s question is simple: without Mbappé, where does France find its goals?

• On the French side, Saliba, Tchouaméni (coach’s choice), Zaïre-Emery and Mateta are also missing; Konaté twisted his right knee in training, and Leny Yoro, called up for the first time, takes his place.
• On the Italian side, Raspadori left Coverciano on Wednesday, a thigh injury picked up in Bursa, with no replacement called up; Meret, Spinazzola, Cambiaso, Cristante, Locatelli and Zaniolo are out, and Samuele Ricci was called up to cover Cristante.
• The official line-ups have settled it: Maignan keeps his goal, Olise and Dembélé are there as projected, Truffert comes in alongside Kalulu, Jacquet and Upamecano, and Doué completes the front three. The midfield is the surprise: Rabiot flanked by Cherki and da Cunha, with Koné not starting. Across, Mancini lines up Tonali between Frattesi and Fagioli, and sends Kean and the two Espositos up front.

A fresh Italy under pressure

Italy lost 0-2 to Belgium in Rome on 25 September, then won 4-1 in Bursa. For this trip, Mancini had left ten players at Coverciano, Barella and Gianluca Mancini among them, to bring them fresh to Paris; the rest of the squad recovered in the pool on the night of the 28th. On Thursday the coach settled his list of 23: nine players stay at Coverciano, including Alessandro Romano (Cagliari), cut from the delegation.

Under the whistles heard in Rome, Mancini waved away the comparison with the past: “Non abbiamo più i Totti, Del Piero e Baggio, ma ci serve tempo”. A team asking for time, a coach already under fire after two rounds: I see Italy coming to hold the line. Their last trip to France still ended well, a 3-1 in September 2024, and France answered with the same score in Italy in November.

At 1.666, France under 2.5 goals

France are heavy favourites: 1.46 at Bwin ES on Thursday, down from 1.50 at the open. Taking a French win at that price means buying a conviction the whole market already shares.

I prefer a bet that wins with France without demanding a festival from them: France’s team total goals, under 2.5, taken at 1.666 at Bet365. Back-to-back 1-0 wins, Mbappé in Madrid, an Italy that will come to hold: I give France a 65 % chance of scoring two goals at most, where the odds promised 60. The official line-ups do not overturn that reading: this brand-new midfield, I see it closing the game down rather than opening it up. The bet lands if Les Bleus score 0, 1 or 2 goals, whatever the scoreline; it falls from three French goals.

Since the take, the market has warmed to goals: both teams to score has gone from 1.89 at the open to 1.65, and France under 2.5 goals trades at 1.65 at Unibet on Thursday. A signal against me, and I own it: my reading rests on two 1-0 wins and a rebuilt Italy. Stake: 0.75 units ($75), potential profit $49.95. To follow the same staking method, everything runs through the calculator, and every result joins the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

One French goal, one Italian answer

Olise opened in the 55th minute, Bastoni replied about ten minutes later, and France dominated without ever forcing a second: 1-1, Zidane’s first game at the Stade de France without a win. Les Bleus still top the group on seven points.

My bet wins: France under 2.5 team goals, taken at 1.666 with Bet365, lands on that single goal, 0.75 units, +$49.95. Two 1-0s away, a 1-1 at home: without Mbappé, this team still scores around one goal, and that is exactly the ceiling I was looking for.