Greece – Germany: a week after the 1-0 in Augsburg, Klopp keeps his second wave

On 27 September in Augsburg, Kourbelis scored the game’s only goal on 74 minutes and Greece won in Germany for the first time in eleven meetings. Seven days later the two sides meet again in Thessaloniki, with three points between them in the group: Greece on 7, Germany on 4.

One late concession, nothing more

Greece come out of the October window unbeaten: two wins on the road, then Thursday’s 2-2 at home to the Netherlands. That night, Ioannidis and Masouras had them two up before half-time; Van Dijk on 59 minutes and Reijnders on 89 pulled back a team that had defended for an hour. That late Dutch equaliser is the only point dropped all campaign. Tzolakis was decisive in Augsburg.

The Greek attack reshuffles: Christos Tzolis, out with a muscle injury against the Netherlands, has left the squad, and Dimitris Pelkas comes in as reinforcement. The official teamsheet settles it: Masouras does start in place of Tzolis, Pavlidis and Kourbelis both play on, and Karetsas stays on the bench. According to the Greek press, France’s Clément Turpin will take charge of the game.

The three window fixtures, all in the Nations League:

Klopp keeps his second wave

Against Serbia, Jürgen Klopp made seventeen changes from the Greece game and fielded nine uncapped players, Urbig in goal and Wirtz with the armband. The 2-0 (Bischof, Wirtz) was his first win as Germany coach, at the third attempt. The same core covers the return: this second wave plays Serbia then Greece back to back. The German press talks of “making amends” after Augsburg; Klopp himself wants the “quick revenge”. In goal, the projections gave Finn Dahmen; the official sheet stays loyal to Urbig, and Wirtz starts again.

When nine players are new to international football together, the missing automatisms cost you: in the pressing, who jumps to the ball-carrier and who guards the second ball gets decided on the run. Germany found answers against Serbia; Greece will ask a different question.

• Nico Schlotterbeck, out with ankle ligament damage, misses the return in Thessaloniki;
• Serge Gnabry does not travel: Felix Keidel, cut after the Serbia game, has been recalled in his place, on Sky Sport Deutschland’s information;
• Joshua Kimmich, no longer part of the squad.

The market has moved to Germany

At writing, Germany were 2.10 with Betano; by Saturday they had gone to 1.91, under the even line. Greece have moved the other way: 4.10 with Bet365, from 3.70 on Thursday. The draw is 3.86 with 1xbet. The market has replayed Germany’s 2-0 over Serbia and Greece’s 89th-minute concession.

My double chance has followed the opposite path: taken at 1.875 with Betway on Thursday, it now quotes 1.992 with 1xbet. Today’s price pays the outcome better than the one I took.

My bet: Greece or draw at 1.875

The take stays Thursday’s: 1.875 with Betway. Today’s market gives that outcome barely a one-in-two chance (1.992); I make it 56%. Won if Greece win or draw: +$65.63 for a 0.75-unit stake. Lost if Germany win: −$75.00. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Where I see the edge: Greece beat this Germany side away a week ago, and Klopp fields another reshuffled eleven. Both attacks have lost a player since Thursday; a tighter game suits the outcome I am covering. The 0.75-unit stake follows the Kelly calculator; the edge is modest, and so is the stake. It will be settled in my public record, win or lose.

The scenario that wins the bet: Greece hold their low block and strike on the transition, as in Augsburg, while the German eleven look for their bearings. The one that loses it: the momentum from the 2-0 over Serbia takes hold from kick-off and the German pressing cuts off Greek build-up play.

The Greek block held, and the bet with it

Greece 0, Germany 0. The scenario played out as written: a closed low block, a German eleven still looking for bearings, a game locked to the end. Greece finish the window unbeaten and stay three points clear of a Germany that never scored in Thessaloniki. My bet won: Greece or draw at 1.875 with Betway, 0.75 units, +$65.63. The “or draw” did the work, not the win; Augsburg stays the prettier match.