Greece – Netherlands: Greece on top, the Netherlands still favourites in Thessaloniki

Toumba sold out in under four hours for the visit of the Netherlands, just as it did for Germany next Sunday. Greece have let nothing slip in this Nations League: six points, two away wins. The market still has the Dutch as favourites, and I read this match the other way.

Two away wins change a team

Greece won 2-1 in Serbia and then 1-0 in Germany, where Kourbelis scored the winning goal. Both matches say the same thing: a block that holds for 90 minutes, together. This Jovanovic side lives on its organisation, and it plays this one in front of its own crowd, with six days and two trips in the legs: rest on Monday, back training on Tuesday evening, limited changes to manage the fatigue.

A first squad without Depay or Weghorst

For his first call-ups, Xavi Hernández left out Depay, Weghorst, De Roon and De Vrij. The other withdrawals came during the window: Gakpo, injured in Serbia, Brobbey and Geertruida, after Kluivert and Malen. Up front, Meerdink, making his first start in Serbia, scored both goals of the win.

Wednesday’s probable XI hands Van Bommel his first start, with Summerville on the right and Veerman in midfield; Gravenberch stays out, and Til and Quinten Timber start. Van Dijk, Van Hecke and both Timbers are one booking away from a suspension.

Who is out, who is back

• Vagiannidis (Greece): ruled out; Saliakas is favourite at right-back.
• Rota, Giannoulis, Chatzidiakos (Greece): out, per the Greek press.
• Kostoulas (Greece): available again, but neither he nor Tetteh starts: Pavlidis and Ioannidis lead the line.
• Van Hecke (Netherlands): left Wednesday’s session after a quarter of an hour; the official sheet rules him out, and Jurriën Timber duly takes his place, alongside Van Dijk and Van de Ven.

Losing Vagiannidis is manageable: Saliakas starts as expected, and this block has already won twice on the road. It is the Dutch defence that has weakened this week, and Timber has only ten minutes in Serbia in his legs.

What the last five matches say

Greece come out of a perfect window, the Netherlands out of a World Cup and two tight results.

The market stays on the Netherlands

The Netherlands are 2.17 with 10BET and Greece 3.45 with Betano in the 30 September prices, against 4.02 at the open: the market has priced in the Greek window without turning on its favourite. History backs it: nine Dutch wins in eleven meetings, including a 0-1 in Greece in 2023.

I take Greece or the draw at 1.80

I give Greece a 61% chance of not losing; at 1.80 with Bet365, the market gives 55.6. The gap is clear: 1.25 units, $125. Greece win or draw, the bet pays $100; the Netherlands win, it costs $125. The stake follows a quarter of Kelly and the pick joins my public record.

Nothing since Tuesday has strengthened the Netherlands, and the double chance still trades at 1.80, the price the bet was taken at. The winning scenario: Greece hold their block, expose a makeshift Dutch attack and ride a Toumba that pushes them on. The losing one: the Oranje collective keeps enough quality between the lines to decide a move.

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Toumba gives nothing away: 2-2

Greece and the Netherlands share a 2-2 at the Toumba. Greece stay unbeaten, seven points, top of Group B; the Netherlands (5) did not win where they had won 0-1 in 2023. The scenario I took: a Greek block that holds, a makeshift Dutch attack that scores without deciding.

My bet, Greece or the draw at 1.80 with Bet365, wins: 1.25 units, $125 staked, $100 in profit. I gave Greece 61% of not losing where the market promised 55.6%: the gap was clear, the stake followed it, and the draw was enough.