Hungary vs Georgia: two blunt attacks, a bet on calm

At the Puskás Aréna on Friday, the Nations League serves up two teams stuck at the bottom of Group B2: Hungary and Georgia have a point each, and neither has scored in two rounds. The Hungarian press has picked its headline: “Let something finally happen!” I am betting on what will not happen.

Two goals in four games across the group

This group is locked shut: four games played, two goals in total. Northern Ireland and Ukraine, both on four points, each won 1-0 and then drew 0-0; Hungary and Georgia sit on no goals scored, one conceded. On Friday, one of the two will have to open something up, or not.

Hungary are living through a goalless, chance-light autumn: a 0-1 defeat against Ukraine at the Puskás in front of 59,000, then 0-0 in Belfast with one shot on target out of thirteen, worth 0.94 expected goals. Across both games, Rossi’s team never had the match in hand.

No Sallai, no Varga, an attack to rebuild

Roland Sallai and Barnabás Varga, both injured, miss the whole window: 30 goals gone from a squad that is not scoring any. On Thursday, Rossi asked for faster and more direct play and better crosses, and noted that the only assist missed so far came from an unforced defensive error. The Budapest press wonders about Rossi’s future; Osváth speaks of an “obligation to win”, with a sports psychologist working with the squad, and of a solid defence: one goal conceded in two games.

• Bolla was stretchered off in Belfast with an ankle sprain and bruise; the federation calls it “less serious than feared”; at kick-off, Bolla does not start.
• Redzic, out with an ankle injury, will miss the remaining three games of the window; Tóth Rajmund and Szalai József are back in the squad, and Kovács Bendegúz returns to the under-21s.
• Thursday’s XI gave Tóth Alex (Bournemouth) a good chance of starting, with Szoboszlai as the playmaker: the official line-up follows that script, and progress will still run through him, the one player able to speed up a closed game.

Svanadze for five days, Kvaratskhelia for much longer

Georgia changed manager on 26 September: Willy Sagnol paid for the defeat against Northern Ireland, a Shea Charles goal at 90+9, six straight competitive defeats, seven games without a win. Ramaz Svanadze, promoted from the under-21s, is appointed through 2028, and his first match held: 0-0 against Ukraine, after a single training session together. “Overall, we were better than Ukraine,” he noted, before asking for time.

Georgia’s problem sits where Hungary’s does: up front. Kvaratskhelia has put two shots on target from five attempts across two rounds, and Mikautadze has not unlocked the counters either. Over eighteen months, the first has six goals, the second seven: the talent is there, the window’s ledger is empty. Budu Zivzivadze, fit again, returns as a candidate to lead the line. Rossi describes a team that has moved to a 3-5-2, Kvaratskhelia free to roam, a “very dangerous” Mikautadze, and eight players turning out regularly in the major leagues. The official line-up does field the Mikautadze-Kvaratskhelia pair up front, with Chakvetadze behind them; Zivzivadze does not start.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.79

The market has moved without changing its mind: Hungary remain a quiet favourite at 2.10 with 1xbet on Thursday, but the draw has come down to 3.40 and Georgia to 3.70. What I read stays the same: a match between two teams without a goal, one stripped of its forwards, the other under a coach six days into the job.

I keep the bet taken on Tuesday: match total, under 2.5 goals, at 1.79 with 10BET. Two goals in four games in this group, a Hungary without Sallai and Varga, a Georgia still being pieced together: I give it 61 per cent that the match finishes on two goals at most, where the price implies 56. The bet wins on 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0; it loses from the third goal onwards, and a Kvaratskhelia night in Budapest is exactly the scenario that beats me.

Stake: 1 unit ($100), potential profit $79. The line has tightened since Tuesday: under 2.5 now displays at 1.78 with Unibet on Thursday, the edge is a little thinner than at the take, and the stake stays the one on the ticket; for the method, the calculator does the work, and the result will join the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

One goal, exactly enough

Kerkez scored in the 35th minute, and nobody after him: 1-0 to Hungary, the first goal and the first win of their campaign. Svanadze’s Georgia left Budapest without scoring, Kvaratskhelia included, and the scenario that beat me never happened.

Under 2.5 goals, taken at 1.79 with 10BET, wins: one unit, +$79. The bet covered 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0; the match picked the 1-0.