Israel – Kosovo: Ben Shimon facing calls to resign, Kosovo without Rrahmani

“We started the match in a shameful way.” Ran Ben Shimon owned the defeat by Ireland (0-3) at the final whistle, and his side go into Thursday’s third League B game with zero points. The Israeli press demand his resignation after two defeats in two games, one goal scored in 180 minutes, six conceded; one daily now writes that a defeat would seal the national team’s fate. In Debrecen, where Israel play their “home” matches, the coach should still be on the bench.

His record: eight wins in twenty-two matches. “The responsibility lies 100% with the players”, replied Dasa; Solomon called it “a shame”.

What the recent matches say

Israel’s come from World Cup qualifiers and friendlies; in this League B, the only competitive win between the two belongs to Kosovo, that 1-0 against Ireland.

A reshuffle, not yet a system

On the eve, Ben Shimon has still not settled his shape or several positions: a back four or three centre-backs: the official sheet picks four. Two dailies in agreement expect Tai Baribo to start in attack and Dor Peretz to return; the dailies were right on those names, and the eleven splits the rest: Nachmias and Shlomo start together, Dasa does not, Solomon and Abada are in (ynet). Relearning your zone three days before kick-off costs: the half-second lost on a marking opens a goal.

Kosovo arrive with their core: Zhegrova, Rashica, Muriqi and Asllani are all present, and the federation called up Erblin Osmani, 17, trained at the Bayern academy, along with Dion Kacuri. Muriqi wears the armband for this window.

What is missing on both sides

• Amir Rrahmani (Kosovo): the former captain walked away from the national team after a dispute with the federation’s leadership.
• Arijanet Murić (Kosovo): went off with a muscle injury in Vienna on Sunday; Saipi is indeed the one who starts.
• Albian Hajdari (Kosovo): doubtful, absent from the UEFA list of defenders.
• Omri Gandelman (Israel): knee injury, out for one to two weeks.

I still think Rrahmani’s withdrawal weighs more than the goalkeeper doubt: a defence without its former captain loses the voice that holds it, and this match can turn on one communication error.

The market has corrected, and keeps going

At 2.32 with Betano in the latest reading, Kosovo start favourites, and the price has slid from 2.62 at the opening: Israel’s crisis was read before me. Israel trade at 3.20 with Bet365, the draw at 3.40. The drift has not stopped: the Kosovo -0.25 handicap has moved from 2.20 to 1.90.

I take Kosovo, without a clear edge

I give Kosovo a 44% chance of winning this match; the 2.32 price already promises 43.1%. The gap is too thin to pay: once blended with the market’s probability, the stake falls to the minimum, 0.25 units, $25. Kosovo win, the bet pays $33; a draw or an Israeli win loses it. The method follows quarter Kelly, and the pick goes on my public record, win or lose.

The eve does not move me: the market has followed the same reading as mine, and gone further. The winning scenario: Israel start as they did against Ireland, Kosovo open the score and play in transition. The losing one: Ben Shimon sets up a compact block, Baribo takes the first chance, and Kosovo have to invent.

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Debrecen stays silent: 0-0

No goals at the Nagyerdei. Israel take their first point of the campaign and their first clean sheet; Kosovo drop two points with the favourite’s tag on them. Ben Shimon’s compact block, my losing scenario, held for ninety minutes; only the Israeli goal went missing. Austria (7) lead the group, Ireland and Kosovo (4) follow, Israel (1) stay last.

My bet, Kosovo to win at 2.32 with Betano, loses: 0.25 units, $25 staked, $25 down. I made Kosovo 44% where the odds promised 43.1%: tonight the market and I were wrong together, and the minimum stake kept the bill small.