Italy – Türkiye: the 4-1 of Bursa is already in the price

In Liège on Friday, Türkiye conceded three goals while their supporters chanted “istifa”, resign. Vincenzo Montella insisted he is not thinking about resigning; his team, though, sits bottom of Group A1 with no points and one goal scored in three games. Italy, third on four points, held France in Paris (1-1, Bastoni equalising, Donnarumma decisive): lose at the Dall’Ara on Monday and the top of the table slips away.

Eight goals conceded in three games

Both teams’ results tell the same gap:

One goal scored, eight conceded on the Turkish side. For Italy, the home defeat against Belgium on the opening night showed this side can derail; since then they won at Bursa and held France. In Bologna, Italy have never lost to Türkiye: ten wins and four draws in fourteen meetings, with Monday the fifteenth.

Without Kökçü or Güler, the Turkish build-up loses its outlets

The official Turkish XI is a 5-4-1 built on transitions: Çakır behind five defenders, Yüksek and Özcan in midfield, Şimşir alone up front. Win it deep, play out fast, run. The player who gives the first pass after the recovery carries that whole plan, and Orkun Kökçü has left the squad, ruled out by the federation.

• Orkun Kökçü, out with a toe injury, had already missed the game in Bursa.
• Arda Güler, suspended after a second booking, has left the squad along with Barış Alper Yılmaz, reported suspended by the same outlet; the official XI leaves both of them out. Kenan Yıldız and Çalhanoğlu are also out injured.
• Italy: nine players stayed behind at Coverciano, Cambiaghi, Coppola and Ghilardi among them, on a programme dedicated to this game; Di Lorenzo, Mancini and Barella all start, Bastoni too, and Scamacca leads the line with Maldini.

Take those outlets away from a group already hit, and the ball takes longer to leave their half. Türkiye flew from Liège to Bologna on Sunday for their press conference at the Dall’Ara: three days after the collapse, they arrive with heavy legs and without their creators. Against a set Italian block, Bologna can look like Bursa: plenty of Turkish ground to defend, few ways out of it.

At 1.45, the market has read everything

Italy to win keeps shortening: 1.62 at the opening, 1.48 with 10BET when I took my bet, 1.45 at the best price on Sunday. The market watched Bursa, the collapse in Liège, then the Turkish absences fall one by one: at 1.45 it gives Italy 69%, exactly my number.

I take Italy to win, 0.25 units ($25): it pays $12 if they win, and costs $25 on a draw or a defeat. The market has read this match well; I hold no edge, so the stake is minimal, sized with the Kelly calculator. This bet joins my public record, assumed like all the others. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Three points ground out in Bologna

Italy beat Türkiye 3-1 in Bologna, with less sparkle than the 4-1 in Bursa. Scamacca opened with a volley in off the underside of the bar, Şimşir equalised just after the hour, then the substitutes settled it: Calafiori, heading in a Barella free-kick for his first Italy goal, and Esposito late on. Türkiye leave with zero points from four games, and relegation to League B is taking shape.

My bet, Italy at 1.48, has won: 0.25 unit for $12. Türkiye had their half-hour, Italy were less bright than on Friday, but the balance of these two weeks was never in danger. The minimum stake, taken on a match the market had already read well, was the right measure.