Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: since Plovdiv, neither attack has scored

The first leg in Plovdiv on 26 September produced three goals: Bulgaria 1-2 Luxembourg, with Vincent Thill decisive from a corner after the break (match report). Since then, nothing. Luxembourg have not scored again, and neither have Bulgaria: two matches each, no goals.

Plovdiv, then silence

Both of Luxembourg’s goals in this campaign came that night in Bulgaria; so did Bulgaria’s only goal, in the same match. Everywhere else the two attacks stay on zero, and the table shows it: Luxembourg third on 3 points, Bulgaria bottom on 1.

An infirmary facing a rebuild

• Luxembourg’s treatment room has filled up: Danel Sinani, injured knee (cruciate and meniscus), is out for months, Christopher Martins and Seid Korac for the long term, and captain Laurent Jans was forced off injured against Iceland on 29 September (Luxembourg press).
• UEFA has corrected its record: the yellow card shown in Estonia, first logged against Marvin Martins, in fact belongs to Leandro Barreiro, and the vice-captain misses Tuesday’s match (FLF announcement).
• In Bulgaria, Aleksandar Dimitrov resigned after the 0-0 with Estonia; Atanas Ribarski, promoted from the under-19s, has taken over on an interim basis, according to the Bulgarian press.
• The same Bulgarian press reports Dimitar Velkovski and Lukas Petkov suspended for an accumulation of yellow cards.
• The official line-ups are out: Vincent Thill, decisive in the first leg, starts in the trio behind Videira Pereira; Kraev starts for Bulgaria.

The bet: at least one team stays quiet

Luxembourg remain favourites, but their price has drifted: 2.15 with Betway on Monday, from an opening 2.02; the draw is 3.65 with 10BET, Bulgaria tightened to 3.66 with 1xbet from an opening 4.10. The market has caught up with the scoring: the main total line is down to 2 goals. A Luxembourg win at 2.15 does not tempt me, the price already carries the group table; I prefer both teams to score: no, which the market rates at 56% and I make 60%. Two silent attacks, a treatment room that keeps filling up, a rebuilt Bulgarian bench: goals have few doors to go through on Tuesday.

I take that no at 1.769 with 1xbet, the price recorded on Sunday. The edge over the market, once my estimate is tempered by theirs, stays thin: the stake is the minimum, 0.25 units, $25; our Kelly calculator commits no more when the advantage is fine. At least one team scoreless: $19.23 net. Both score, as in Plovdiv: the $25 is gone.

The bet dies if the game opens up like the first leg. It lives if it looks like the last four outings of these two teams: dry, closed, decided by one goal or by nobody. It goes on the public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Balov and Iliev strike before the break

Bulgaria, in town with an interim coach, settled the match before the break: Balov on 19 minutes at the end of a move with Tsenov, Iliev on 34, first time, from a Rusev cross. Luxembourg had 62% of the ball and seven shots on target, and Naumov took every one of them: still no Luxembourg goal since Plovdiv, a third straight match without one. 0-2: Bulgaria’s first win of the campaign, and four points back in front.

My bet needed at least one team to stay goalless, and Luxembourg did. The no on both teams to score at 1.769 with 1xbet pays $19.22 for the minimum stake of 0.25 units. I read a closed match, decided by one goal or by nobody: it was decided by two, from the same side, and the bet lost nothing to it.