North Macedonia – Scotland: in Skopje, I bet on two attacks that no longer score

At Hampden on Tuesday, Scotland lasted eleven minutes with eleven men. Jack Hendry saw his yellow card turned red after a video review, for a foul ruled just outside the box, and Rodríguez opened the scoring in the very next minute; Elvedi and then Amdouni widened the gap after half-time. Sébastien Pocognoli’s first game on the Scotland bench ended in a 3-0 defeat to Switzerland.

No goals in two games, on either side

Look for Scottish goals in this group: there are none. Scotland took their point in Slovenia (0-0), then shipped three without reply. North Macedonia, in their first League B season, did the same: 3-0 to Switzerland, 2-0 in Slovenia. Across their last five games, friendlies included, they have not scored.

Only the Swiss have scored more than once in this group: six of the eight goals in four games, two 3-0 wins.

A rebuilt Scotland, without McTominay

Sebastien Pocognoli, the Belgian, took over in August after Steve Clarke left at the end of the World Cup. First camp: twenty-eight players including seven uncapped newcomers, fourteen absent from the World Cup squad, a training camp in La Manga. Everything still has to be built.

• McTominay, recovering after a cardiac procedure, is not travelling.
• Ché Adams is out injured; Tierney and McLean have withdrawn hurt.
• Hendry, sent off on Tuesday against Switzerland, is suspended.

Pocognoli has fielded near-identical elevens in his two games in charge; without Hendry, the uncapped Luke Graham and Ben Gannon-Doak, who came off the bench against Slovenia and then Switzerland, the teamsheet gives Welsh, McKenna and Binks as the back three, Gannon-Doak starting on one flank, and Bowie paired with McBurnie up front. Robertson keeps the armband. Saturday’s game in Skopje is live on BBC Two and iPlayer in the UK.

Sedloski stands by his rebuild

Goce Sedloski called up twenty-eight players, four of them new, for this first League B campaign. Nikola Serafimov (Levski Sofia) is injured; Darko Churlinov, the Pogon Szczecin forward, is stuck in Poland: his paperwork is unresolved and the federation expects at least two more weeks of procedures; centre-back Meljichi, hurt at the end of the game in Slovenia, keeps his place in the 3-4-2-1. After the Switzerland defeat Sedloski changed eight starters, reshaped his whole back line and rested Bardhi; Gashtarov and Elmas are the only survivors from open play. With four games in ten days, he has warned he will rotate.

On Friday he stood by the rebuild: “we have rejuvenated the squad… let the criticism aim at me”. He expects a physical Scotland that plays long and puts plenty of balls into the box. Miovski, the country’s last scorer, leads the line, with Bardhi and Elmas behind him.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.75: the shut-out bet

The market has dragged Scotland down from 3.55 at the open to 1.78 with 10BET as of Friday’s check; no public information explains the move. The winner barely matters: I take under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with Unibet, a price the market puts just beyond a one-in-two chance, and I rate the scenario at 62%.

Why: nobody has scored here in September, Scotland’s midfield is being rebuilt and Macedonia will rotate. What holds me back: Switzerland have already won 3-0 twice in this group, and one clinical evening would blow the total. The stake stays measured: 0.75 units, $75.

Zero, one or two goals: the bet wins, plus $56.25. Three goals or more: it loses, minus $75. The stake follows my probability and the market’s; to play with the numbers, the Kelly calculator is there. This tip will join the others on the public record. 18+, only bet what you can afford to lose.

Two goals, the total holds

Scotland win 0-2 in Skopje. Two goals in all: under 2.5 lands, $56.25 on top. North Macedonia stay mute for the third match running in this group, no goal and no point, and Scotland take their first Nations League win.

One more goal, at either end, and the bet flipped; it never came.