Portugal v Norway: Ronaldo has left the camp, Portugal arrive on nine from nine

Cristiano Ronaldo left Portugal’s camp in Copenhagen for Madrid, and the federation answered in one line: preparation for the Norway game continues with the 24 remaining players. Público confirms what the dressing room already knew: Jorge Jesus had not planned him for Norway or for Denmark, and he did not play a minute at Ullevaal. The saga filled the front pages; it changes nothing about Sunday’s fixture at the Dragão.

Nothing, because the match still reads the same way: a team on nine points out of nine hosts a side that has just lost twice in a row, in front of a sold-out Dragão.

A draw would be enough for Portugal’s quarter-final place

The head coach said it on 30 September: three or four changes per game, because four matches in eleven days are not played by the same eleven. Rotation has not broken the attack: seven goals in three outings, a 1-0 over Wales, a 2-1 in Norway, a 4-2 in Denmark on Thursday. The final training session took place at the Dragão on Saturday, and a draw would be enough for Portugal to book a quarter-final place. The official teamsheet confirms the rotation: Palhinha holds the anchor role in the 4-1-3-2, Bruno Fernandes plays off Gonçalo Ramos, and Norway line up Ødegaard, Nusa and Schjelderup around Haaland.

What to watch on Sunday

• Portugal’s attacking set pieces, which Jesus admits he has not worked on yet;
• The fitness of Conceição and João Félix: one missed the 4-2 in Copenhagen, the other only did specific work on Friday; both start;
• The Norwegian goal: Solbakken has confirmed Selvik will start, a choice long in the making and unrelated to results; Nyland learned of it on television;
• Norway’s central defence without Heggem, absent on Sunday;
• The referee, Italy’s Maurizio Mariani.

Two goals conceded in each of the last three games

In Cardiff, Norway opened the scoring in the 11th minute with a move involving Berge, Bobb and Ødegaard, and led until the 38th. Then it broke: Daniel James before the break, Neco Williams just after it. Solbakken called his side pretty in the first half and too weak defensively, and the Norwegian federation’s report tells the same story. Three games, six goals conceded, two per match, no exception.

Norway have scored in each of those three games; what gives way is the back line.

Since Thursday, the market has swung back to Portugal

I took Portugal to win at 1.88 with 10BET on Thursday evening, while the market still doubted the legs. The 4-2 in Copenhagen turned the move around: the best price is back down to 1.68 with Bwin ES this Saturday, from 1.80 at the opening, and the -0.75 handicap has come in from 2.025 to 1.75 with Bet365. At 1.68 the market gives Portugal nearly a 60 percent chance; at my price it gave barely 53.

My bet stands: Portugal to win, taken at 1.88

Portugal to win in 90 minutes, taken at 1.88 with 10BET, one unit, $100. I give them a 57 percent chance; the market now gives nearly 60 at 1.68. Thursday’s price is gone, the bet stays. The -0.75 handicap would need a two-goal margin to pay in full; against a team that scores every time out, I prefer the straight win. The stake follows the Kelly calculator. This bet joins my public record. Portugal win: +$88.00; draw or Norway win: -$100.00.

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Fourth win in four, the quarters are sealed

Portugal 2, Norway 1. The draw that would have been enough was never needed, and Norway finished the window the way it started it: one goal scored, two conceded, the run now four matches long. My bet won: Portugal to win at 1.88 with 10BET, one unit, +$88. The price had swung to Portugal after the 4-2 in Copenhagen; Thursday’s reading was enough.