Republic of Ireland vs Austria: which Austria turns up at the Aviva?

Six points, top spot, two wins built at home: Austria opened their window without a wobble. Ireland picked up three points from two away games and play their first match at the Aviva on Thursday. On the table the gap is clear; on the medical report and the disciplinary sheet, it closes by the day.

The Austrian axis rebuilt without Danso

The day’s news carries weight: Kevin Danso, the boss of the Austrian back line, is suspended in Dublin after a second booking of the group, picked up against Kosovo (ORF). Baumgartner also misses the trip, with no injury confirmed. In the axis, the press had named Bacher and Friedl; the team sheet decides otherwise: Lienhart and Affengruber start, in front of Wiegele, with Kalajdzic up front.

• Wanner (left foot) and Veratschnig (right knee): injuries confirmed by scan, back at their clubs.
• Horvath: the thigh examination found nothing structural, but he is not in the starting eleven.
• Laimer: back in full training on Monday, available, but not in the eleven in Dublin; the press had projected him as captain (oe24).

The Austrian staff say they replace their leaders “as a team”, not one by one.

Bazunu returns, the Aviva waits

On the Irish side, the squad is growing rather than shrinking: Gavin Bazunu, withdrawn before the Israel trip for personal reasons, is back for Austria, and Hallgrímsson praises Finn Azaz, who stayed in the group. The Irish eleven gives Kelleher the goal and Azaz a start; Bazunu watches on. Bosun Lawal joined up without being fit for Thursday, and Luton keeper Josh Keeley makes it four goalkeepers (Irish News). Collins, the captain, stays out for the whole gathering, along with Coleman, Taylor, Johnston, Ferguson, McGrat and Cullen.

The mood will not be settled by a team sheet. Hallgrímsson denounces “a lot of lies” about his squad, insists the “mood is good” and calls Austria “the highest-ranked team in the group”; his players have said nothing to the press since the vote that followed the Israel match. The fixture doubles as a test for Euro 2028, with the front rows of the stands closed (Irish Times). Across the last two meetings Ireland hold up well: 1-1 in Dublin in 2017, a 1-0 win in Vienna in 2016, both in World Cup qualifying.

The market has slid towards few goals

At Wednesday’s reading: Austria 2.21, Ireland 3.60, the draw 3.30. The week’s move came on the total: under 2.25 goals has come in from 2.08 to 1.85. On the main handicap, Ireland +0.25 still trades at 2.00 with Bet365, Austria -0.25 at 1.80.

Ireland +0.25: the draw pays half

The line splits the stake in two: half on Ireland 0, half on Ireland +0.5. Irish win: bet won, $25 on a $25 stake. Draw: half won, half the stake paid at 2.00, the other half refunded, $12.50. Austrian win: lost.

I make the cover 50%, the market has it at 47.4%. Once the two readings are blended, the edge disappears: the market has read this match well, and the eve does not change my mind. Danso’s suspension and Bazunu’s return lean the same way as my bet, without turning it into value: minimal stake, 0.25 units ($25). The Kelly calculator breaks stakes down into units, and this pick goes on my public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

A draw in Dublin, like 2017: 2-2

Ireland and Austria share a 2-2 at the Aviva, like that 1-1 at the same ground in 2017. Austria drop their first points of the window and stay top of the group (7), ahead of Ireland and Kosovo (4). In their first home game, Ireland held the group leaders.

My bet, Ireland +0.25 at 2.00 with Bet365, wins half: the draw pays half the stake at 2.00 and refunds the other half, $12.50 profit on $25 staked. The market had read this match as well as I had; the minimum stake said so before kick-off.