Republic of Ireland v Israel: behind closed doors in Serbia, I back the Irish goals

The return fixture is played behind closed doors at the TSC Arena in Bačka Topola, Serbia, a long way from the Aviva: an FAI decision ratified by UEFA, announced back in June by the Irish federation. Ireland remain the “home” side on the teamsheet; the home advantage left with the crowd.

No O’Shea, no Bazunu: the Irish teamsheet reshapes itself

Saturday’s press conference was cut short: a question about an attack on a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight, then an accusation of racist abuse in the first fixture that the FAI denies. Hallgrímsson did not reveal his starting eleven on Saturday; Sunday’s official teamsheet gives a 3-5-1-1 with Idah up front and Parrott just behind him.

• Stand-in captain Dara O’Shea has stayed at home: his child is due;
• Gavin Bazunu, unavailable “on principle” as in the first fixture: C. Kelleher keeps the goal;
• James Abankwah suspended, Jason Knight starts;
• Captain Nathan Collins, ruled out for the whole window.

Finn Azaz, “a different position to the other players” according to his head coach, has stayed in the squad after starting deeper against Austria.

Israel: one point, a coach kept on, a defence to patch

Ran Ben-Shimon keeps his job after Thursday’s 0-0, Israel’s first point of the window; the press back home had wanted him out since the 0-3. Dia Saba has been left out of the squad and Noam Steifman called up for the first time: bodies are missing at the back.

The market has let Ireland drift

Ireland to win, opened around 2.06, had tightened to 1.95 after the 3-0 in the first fixture; it has drifted back to 2.25 with Betano this Saturday. The −0.25 handicap followed, from 1.65 to 1.825 with Bet365. The books have priced in the withdrawals, the fatigue of four matches in ten days and an empty stadium; they have not changed their mind about the football.

My line gains from it: Ireland over 1.5 goals, taken at 2.02 with Unibet, now trades at 2.25 with BetMGM. The market has come round to my reading, in the direction of the bet already placed.

My bet: Ireland over 1.5 goals, minimum stake

I give two or more Irish goals a 52% chance: three against Israel a week ago, two against Austria on Thursday, three conceded by Israel in the first fixture. The 0-0 with Kosovo is the scenario that sinks the bet, and it happened on Thursday. The take stays 2.02 with Unibet, the stake the minimum, 0.25 units, $25: the edge at the take was tiny, and the weekend drift changes nothing about the recorded bet. Ireland score twice or more: +$25.50; they score none or one: −$25.00. The method sits in the Kelly calculator, and the bet joins my public record.

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Only one Irish goal

Republic of Ireland 1, Israel 1. The bet lost: Ireland never found a second goal, and Israel leaves Bačka Topola with a second point of the window, after the one against Kosovo. The Irish goals line, taken at 2.02 with Unibet, finished on the wrong side: 0.25 units, -$25. The price had been moving against Irish goals since Saturday; the market read this attack better than I did.