Scotland – Slovenia: second place at stake, Scotland without five men

On 26 September in Ljubljana, Scotland had the ball and the shooting positions: 17 shots to 4, and a 0-0 to show for it. The teams meet again at Hampden Park on Tuesday, level on four points, with second place in the group at stake: Switzerland lead, and the winner moves clear of the other.

A win in Skopje, and an absentee list that keeps growing

Sébastien Pocognoli won his first game on the Scotland bench, in North Macedonia on Saturday: 2-0, Bowie after seven minutes, McGinn from the spot on 69 minutes. In front of his own fans, Steve Clarke’s successor is still waiting: 0-3 against Switzerland on 29 September, after Jack Hendry’s red card on 10 minutes and 80 minutes with ten men.

The absentee list is growing at the worst possible time:

• Scott McKenna, sent off in the 83rd minute in Skopje, suspended;
• Scott McTominay, recovering from a cardiac procedure;
• Che Adams, injured;
• Kieran Tierney and Kenny McLean, late withdrawals, replaced by Kristi Montgomery.

Andy Robertson won his 100th cap in Macedonia and Pocognoli promises “the same face” at Hampden. The official sheet delivers: Jack Hendry, suspension served, goes straight back into a back three, Robertson and Doak hold the flanks, McBurnie leads the line alone with Christie behind him, Gilmour and McGinn in midfield. Without five men, the face still changes.

Slovenia lost in Switzerland, the plan has not changed

Boštjan Cesar, who took over from Matjaž Kek, lost his first away game in Switzerland: 1-2 on Saturday, Vipotnik had opened the scoring after two minutes; an own goal from Janža and a strike from Ndoye turned the game before half-time. Three days earlier his side had beaten North Macedonia 2-0, and before that they had held Scotland to a goalless draw in Ljubljana.

Benjamin Šeško, out with a tibia injury, stayed at home along with Benjamin Verbič and Andraž Šporar. Vipotnik sums up the plan for Hampden: “hold the first assault and take the first chance”; the official sheet has him leading the line, with Matko beside him. Nine Slovenians are one yellow card away from a ban for November’s match: it will weigh on how they go into the duels.

One line of history travels with them: six meetings against Scotland, four draws, two defeats, no wins.

At 1.80, the market has not stopped shortening

A Scotland win is priced 1.80 with 10BET, down from 2.26 at the opening: a twenty percent drop, and it was still 1.92 when this page went up yesterday. The draw is 3.60 with Betway, Slovenia 4.85 with Betano. At that price the market gives Scotland a bit better than a one-in-two chance, and I think it is rushing: Skopje masked the absentees without making them disappear. The Slovenia-or-draw double chance still trades above 2: 2.06 with 1xbet.

My bet: Slovenia or the draw at 2.00

I take the double chance Slovenia or draw at 2.00 with Bet365, and I make it 54% likely, where the odds imply 50. A draw keeps Slovenia second on goal difference: they can play the game that suits them, compact and patient, as in Ljubljana.

What wins it for me: a Slovenian block that absorbs the Scottish pressing for an hour, and a patched-up attack missing the final touch, as in the first game. What loses it: an early Scotland goal that forces Slovenia out of their shape.

Stake: 0.5 units, $50, sized to the edge: my advantage over the market is small, and the stake follows it. Slovenia win or the game is drawn: plus $50. Scotland win: stake lost. This bet joins the public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Christie opens, Slovenia turn Hampden

Scotland had Hampden for an hour. Christie opened on 31 minutes, a left-footed flick, after a Hendry header had come back off the post from a free kick. Matko levelled on 56 at the end of a fast counter, Šturm turned the match on 71, meeting a Matko cut-back. 1-2: Slovenia move second on their own, seven points to four, and Scotland have lost two competitive home games in a row for the first time since 2019.

My bet covered a Slovenia win and the draw, and the draw went unused. I read a Scotland missing five men that the market still followed at 1.80; a patient Slovenia went past them in the table as well as on the pitch. Slovenia or draw at 2.00 with Bet365, half a unit: $50.