Switzerland vs North Macedonia: seven games without a goal, and without Atanasov

On Friday night, the Swissporarena in Lucerne held 15,240 spectators for a scratchy 2-1 win over Slovenia: Ndoye before the break, Freuler at the origin of both goals. Switzerland have their nine points, the local press handed out middling marks, and Murat Yakin wants the job finished. On Tuesday he receives a team that has not scored in seven matches.

Efficient rather than sparkling

Three games, three wins, seven goals to the good: 3-0 in North Macedonia, 3-0 in Scotland, 2-1 against Slovenia. The Swiss press called it efficient, rarely sparkling. For the return, Yakin announced three or four changes on Monday; the official sheet has settled them: Amdouni leads the line, with Ndoye, Sow and Rieder behind him, Freuler and Sierro in midfield. Sanches and Manzambi do not start, and neither does Embolo. The missing list does not help:

• Xhaka, unavailable for the whole window;
• Zakaria, injured;
• Embolo, back from suspension, already absent in North Macedonia and Scotland;
• Atanasov, suspended on the Macedonian side, gone from the camp.

A Macedonia without goal or point

Three defeats, no goal scored, and a game against Scotland on Friday without a single shot on target. The Macedonian press speaks of collapse: eleven matches without a win, seven without scoring. Elmas said it after Scotland: they must “climb out of this abyss before it gets worse”; he starts on Tuesday. Sedloski had switched to a 3-5-2 on Friday, to no avail; the official sheet brings him back to a back four, with Alioski starting, the man who travelled on Monday with no guarantee.

The group in three rounds

Both teams’ results since matchday one:

What the price says

Switzerland have shortened from 1.133 on Sunday to 1.11 with Betano; the draw has drifted to 10 with Betway and Macedonia to 29. There is nothing to take on the winner; the price has said it all. On both teams to score, the no I took stays at 1.504 with 1xbet; the best price on show on Monday is 1.50 with 888Sport, and that market has barely moved.

My bet: no on both teams to score, minimum stake

I took the no at 1.504 with 1xbet on Sunday, and I present it as what it is: the most readable bet of the match, with no clear edge. I still make it 68% that Macedonia do not score here; the market, margin removed, is now at 65.4%. Between my probability and the market’s, the staking rule decides: minimum stake, 0.25 units ($25). Said plainly, this is a read of the match, not value to chase.

If at least one team fails to score, the bet pays $12.60. If both score, $25 gone. The losing scenario is simple: Macedonia find one goal, from a set piece or a Swiss mistake, and Switzerland will score another of their own. The stake follows my staking rule; the bet joins my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Eight games, and still no Macedonian goal

Switzerland won 3-0 in Lucerne without forcing it. Rieder opened on 43 minutes, onto a poorly played back-pass; Manzambi, on at half-time, made it two on 73 and Ndoye closed it on 81. North Macedonia did not put a single shot on target in ninety minutes: eight straight games without scoring, still no goal in this group. Switzerland keep their twelve points from twelve.

My bet, the no on both teams to score at 1.504 with 1xbet, was presented for what it was: a fair reading with no edge on the price. The minimum stake of 0.25 units pays $12.60. Switzerland only had to pick their moment: it came on 43 minutes, then everything followed.