Ukraine and Northern Ireland, two clean sheets apiece, meet in Trnava for top spot

Four points, zero goals conceded: Ukraine and Northern Ireland meet in Trnava on Friday for first place in Group B2. The group winner goes straight up to League A, the runner-up faces a play-off. Friday’s winner takes a serious hold on the top spot, and both campaigns tell the same story of a closed match.

Two shut-outs, one goal scored each

Ukraine won in Hungary then kept Georgia at bay; Northern Ireland won in Georgia before Hungary held them at Windsor Park. One goal scored each in two matches, two clean sheets each: these teams live on their block, on set pieces and on fine margins.

Bondar and Ocheretko available, Mykolenko ill

Bondar and Ocheretko are there after all, both starting: the Ukrainian federation has denied the suspensions Maldera announced after the Georgia game, each of them holds only one yellow card in this edition. The new absence sits elsewhere: Mykolenko, ill according to Maldera, will miss out, after playing 94 minutes in Hungary and then sitting out Georgia. The rest of the sick list still holds:

• Mudryk, Zinchenko and Dovbyk are among the long-term absentees;
• Artem Stepanov (19, Utrecht), taken off with a left ankle injury on 20 September with his club, was called up anyway, with no certainty over his fitness;
• the press expected Yaremchuk (18 international goals) to lead the line; the official line-up confirms it.

Ukraine’s bench remains deeper; the official line-up fields Yarmolenko, Tsygankov and Sudakov around Yaremchuk.

Young Northern Irish legs, 8,000 kilometres in them

Michael O’Neill named 28 players, 17 of them under 25. Squad depth will matter in the third and fourth matches, as he says himself, and his group cannot rotate the way Ukraine did in Georgia. Add an 8,000-kilometre round trip to Georgia, then Trnava, then Belfast, when he is calling for consistent recovery times.

Ballard, injured against Georgia, remains out, replaced by McConville, solid against Hungary; the Windsor Park eleven, nearly unchanged, does keep Donley and Price up front, with McConville in the back three. Conor Bradley and Lyons are receiving treatment, McDonnell (hamstring) stayed with his club and McCann is unavailable. Across six meetings, Ukraine lead: three wins, two draws, one defeat, and a last meeting won 1-0 in 2021 on a Zubkov goal.

The winner at 1.93, the goal count at 1.63

Ukraine are favourites at 1.93 with Betano, shortened from the opening 2.02: the market has priced in Ukraine’s deeper bench and Northern Ireland’s travel. The draw is 3.35, Northern Ireland 4.46, and Mykolenko’s absence has not moved a single line. Two blocks that have conceded nothing tell me more about the number of chances than about the outright winner.

I keep the bet taken on Tuesday: under 2.5 goals at 1.63 with Unibet, still at that price on Thursday. I give a match with two goals or fewer a 65% chance; the price implies 61. The edge is there, but thin, hence 0.5 units ($50) at a quarter Kelly. No goal, one or two: the bet wins (+$31.50); three goals or more: it loses (−$50). An early goal would break one of the two blocks and open the game: that is the risk.

This pick joins my public record, whatever the outcome. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

The blocks came down together

Northern Ireland won 3-0 in Trnava and took sole possession of first place. They had scored one goal in two rounds; they put three past a Ukrainian defence that had conceded none since the start. My reading of two closed blocks did not survive the game that was meant to separate them.

Under 2.5 goals, taken at 1.63 with Unibet, loses: 0.5 units, -$50. I expected fine margins and clean sheets; one of the two teams gave theirs away in ninety minutes.