Wales v Denmark: Riemer counts his absentees, the market counts none of them

On Thursday night, Cardiff won their first match of the year: 2-1 against Norway, a Daniel James goal on 38 minutes, a Neco Williams free kick after the break (Sky Sports match report). The same evening, Copenhagen conceded four against Portugal. On Sunday at the Cardiff City Stadium, Denmark still start as favourites, but the price has drifted: 2.01 with 10BET this Saturday, from 2.15 at the opening.

Bellamy gets his first win of 2026

The result changes the mood in the Welsh dressing room: Bellamy had gone six matches without a win in 2026 and had taken responsibility for the 2-0 defeat in the reverse fixture, as told by the Guardian. His side had not scored in their first two group games; they put in two at once on Thursday. The win needs its context, though: Norway finished with ten men after Heggem’s red card, and the decisive goal came from a set piece.

Wales are far from full strength as well: Rodon, Wilson, Broadhead and Colwill are in the treatment room, per the BBC, and Brooks, who missed the Norway game, has left the squad according to LiveScore, without confirmation from the federation. Daniel James arrives with four goals and an assist in his last nine caps. The official Welsh teamsheet has Koumas leading the line in a 4-2-3-1, with James and Johnson also starting.

Seven or eight players missing on the Danish side

Riemer gives the figure himself, criticised down to the replacements called up: seven or eight players usually in the squad are absent, and the camp has kept emptying down to a 22-man squad for Cardiff.

• Christensen, Bah and Dolberg, ruled out;
• Grønbæk, injured against Norway, whom Riemer chose not to replace;
• Dorgu, a thigh problem in the reverse fixture that sent him back to his club;
• Nartey, called up as cover, gone again after a relapse of an old injury;
• Jensen, struggling with a muscle, and Eriksen, without a club, were not called up.

The core stays strong: Højlund, Højbjerg, Froholdt and Isaksen, man of the match in Copenhagen, all start, Damsgaard does not, and Hermansen takes the goal. Riemer was already under pressure since the World Cup failure; the 2-4 against Portugal did nothing to ease it.

Four meetings, four Danish wins

The favourite’s case sits there: Denmark have won the last four head-to-heads without a single draw, and the FIFA ranking says the same gap, 21st against 38th.

Both teams sit on three points after three rounds. History argues for Copenhagen, recent form less so: only two Danish wins in the last eleven away games, and a Wales side unbeaten in five at home.

Taken at 2.029 on Thursday, and the market has caught up

I took the double chance Wales or draw at 2.029 with 1xbet, giving it a 52% chance; the price implied 49.3. The market has followed the same reading: that double chance is down to 1.88 with Unibet this Saturday, Denmark have drifted from 2.15 to 2.01 with 10BET and the draw has tightened from 4.33 to 3.75. The edge I saw has closed; the bet is taken and it stays as it is.

The stake stays at 0.25 units, $25: a small edge calls for a small stake, and the full workings are in the Kelly calculator. The bet joins my public record. Wales win or draw: +$25.73; Denmark win: -$25.00.

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Denmark’s core was enough

Wales 0, Denmark 1. Missing “seven or eight players”, Denmark needed only its core: a fifth straight win over Wales, still no draw between the two, and a Wales side that never found the net in Cardiff. My bet lost: Wales or draw at 2.029 with 1xbet, 0.25 units, -$25. The absentees showed in the scoreline, not in the result; the favourite kept its place.