Wales vs Norway: no goal in two games, and an ankle to watch

In Copenhagen, Craig Bellamy made six changes from the start and said it himself afterwards: the better team had won. His captain Ben Davies pointed to the two goals conceded from set pieces. Wales come home with no points, no goals, and supporters asking questions (Nation.Cymru).

A silent attack, absences stacking up

Two away games, two defeats, no goal scored: Wales sit bottom of the group and play their first home match of the window in Cardiff.

• Wilson, Broadhead, Darlow, Rodon, Lawlor, Colwill and Isaak Davies are reported out by the English press; the federation has confirmed nothing (FAW).
• The team sheet splits the difference: Ward keeps goal, Koumas starts up front, Cabango is in and Darlow is not.
• With this squad stretched thin, the certainty lies in the low block; the attacking play still has to be invented.

Bellamy has spent the week defending his side’s place in League A, and praising the model in the opposite camp: a World Cup quarter-final, two clubs in the Champions League.

Ødegaard on his way to Cardiff, Nyland under pressure

Ødegaard took no part in Tuesday’s training, an ankle hurt by the Bernardo Silva tackle against Portugal; he limped towards the bus and has not played since. Hangeland calls him “much better than the day before” and has “no doubt” he travels to Cardiff, with a simple target: that he contributes on the pitch (Sportsbibelen). Solbakken has confirmed the Norwegian medical staff are in contact with Arsenal. The team sheet answers: Ødegaard starts, and the schedule presses, a third game in eight days before Porto on Sunday.

In goal, Nyland is taking criticism for the third match running, and the German press already sees him as second choice at Leipzig, behind Vandevoordt. A TV 2 pundit gave Egil Selvik the start in Cardiff, the English press kept Nyland in goal; it is indeed Nyland who keeps goal (Sportsbibelen).

Up front, Haaland remains the guarantee of the Norwegian trip: 65 goals in 57 caps, top scorer in League A with three goals. Bobb, on the bench against Portugal, does start; Wolfe returns from suspension and starts too, Thorstvedt stays out, Sørloth remains unavailable for the window.

A Norwegian win already priced in

Norway’s win has come in from 2.01 to 1.53 over the week and stayed there in Wednesday’s reading; Wales have drifted out to 6.50. On goals the market has stood still: both teams to score, yes at 1.68 since the opening, no at 2.148 with 1xbet.

The bet: at least one team stays silent

“Both teams to score: no” wins as soon as one of the two fails to score in 90 minutes, and pays $28.70 on a $25 stake. It loses if both score. I make that scenario 49%, the market has it at 44.25%. My reading has not moved on the eve of the game, and neither has the bet.

The likeliest path runs through the Welsh attack: two games without scoring and an XI to rebuild. Ødegaard is in the line-up, and the typical scenario almost writes itself: Norway score, Wales stay silent. The classic danger remains: Norway lead by two with a quarter of an hour left and Wales chase a consolation. The stake is minimal, 0.25 units ($25): the edge, once my probability is blended with the market’s, is tiny. The Kelly calculator breaks stakes down into units, and this pick goes on my public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Wales break their silence: 2-1

After two games without scoring, Wales score twice and beat Norway 2-1 in Cardiff: their first goals and first points of the campaign. Behind Portugal, Denmark, Norway and Wales all sit on three points.

My bet, “no” on both teams to score at 2.148 with 1xbet, loses: both teams scored. 0.25 units, $25 staked, $25 down. I made the “no” 49% where the market had it at 44.25%: tonight the market was right, and the template scenario, Norway scoring and Wales staying silent, flipped all the way to the result.