Havertz starts as Arsenal host unbeaten Leeds

The international break left marks on Arsenal. Christos Tzolis came back from Greece with a hamstring injury, Saliba is targeting a November return, but the two muscular doubts of the week are settled: Havertz and Konsa both start. On Saturday, to open matchday six, Arsenal host Leeds as overwhelming favourites: 1.50 at 1xbet. At that price I leave the winner alone and watch the goals.

Havertz leads the line, Konsa partners Gabriel

Second on twelve points with one defeat in five, Arsenal went into the break on a run of seven straight wins in all competitions. The team sheet settles every question: a 4-2-3-1 with Raya in goal; White, Konsa, Gabriel and Calafiori across the back; Rice and Lewis-Skelly in the middle; Saka, Ødegaard and Madueke behind Havertz, who leads the line.

Saliba (back) is still targeting November and Tzolis (hamstring) is out until Everton, in two to three weeks. Gyokeres, who scored in all four of Sweden’s matches over the break, does not start: 29 minutes of Premier League football this season did not buy him the spot. Eze, tipped for the left wing, stays out of the eleven: Madueke completes the trio behind Havertz.

Leeds travel unbeaten, but without Daniel James

Fifth on nine points, Leeds have lost no league match: two wins, three draws, three goals conceded, the club’s best start since 2001/02. Seven draws in their last ten away games: this team is built for tight matches. The team sheet shows a 3-4-2-1, Calvert-Lewin as the focal point, back unharmed from England duty, with Stach and Okafor behind him. Their only defeat of the season came in the League Cup, 3-6 at Chelsea.

Farke has now named his group: Daniel James misses the trip with a back injury picked up with Wales, Rodon is still limited to individual sessions, and Joseph (knee) remains out for months. Bahoya and Wilson, back in training this week, do not start.

History says Arsenal, the present says Leeds

Arsenal have won the last seven meetings, 24 goals to 5; Leeds have not beaten Arsenal since May 2003. The last 4-0 came in January, and the three oldest in the table belong to another life of the club. That past weighs on the odds; it says nothing about the current Leeds.

Under 2.5 goals at 2.137: one unit

The main line of the match is 2.5 goals and the draw stands at 4.80 at 10BET this Saturday: the market keeps Arsenal a heavy favourite. The team sheets cut both ways: Havertz, Saka and Ødegaard from the start give the attack real teeth, but Konsa brings order back in front of Raya and Leeds keep their back five. I give under 2.5 goals a 51% chance, where the market saw 46.7% when the bet was recorded; at 2.137 at 1xbet, that gap is worth one unit. This Saturday morning the under pays 2.11 at 1xbet, still below the odds I took: the market has moved my way, which proves nothing.

Arsenal can also concede three in one go, as Brighton showed just before the break, and the back line still turns without Saliba, even with Konsa back: that is why my probability stays at 51%, no higher. For $100 staked, one unit: 0, 1 or 2 goals in total and the bet returns $113.70 net; from three goals, the stake is lost.

As always, the stake comes from my probability against the price, never more than a small share of the bankroll: the calculator is public if you want to check. The result will join my public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

2-1: one goal too many

Arsenal won 2-1, the same score as in May 2022, and Leeds left the Emirates with their first league defeat of the season. Eight straight wins in all competitions: the favourite held its rank.

Three goals in total: my under 2.5 lost by one goal and cost the stake, $100. The team sheets cut both ways and it was the full-strength attack that won out, Leeds’ back five conceding twice. The market had come round to my price; the match went over the line. The loss goes on the record as it is.