Manchester City, seven from seven, return to Aston Villa, where they have not won since December 2021

Seven wins from seven, 21 points, and a trip to the side sitting 12th: Manchester City’s Saturday reads like a routine job. Villa Park is where that routine breaks. City have not won there since December 2021, and their last two visits both ended in defeat, 1-0 then 2-1.

Villa have won the last two at Villa Park

Two of the last three league meetings have gone Villa’s way, including a 2-1 win at the Etihad last May. The ground itself tells the same story: three defeats and a draw for City at Villa Park since the end of 2021.

Europe has brought Villa back to life

Villa won one of their first six league games. The Champions League changed the mood: 6-0 against Fenerbahce on 14 October, then a 1-0 win at Newcastle three days later. Viking FK came to Villa Park on Wednesday night and left beaten 3-1: this squad is no longer the one that started the season.

City rule the league, and wobble in midweek

In the Premier League everything works: 3-2 over Ipswich on 17 October, a seventh straight win. In midweek the picture changes. On 14 October City lost 2-4 at home to Paris Saint-Germain, then answered on Monday with a 5-1 over AEK Athens, with Doku, Ndiaye, Guehi and Bouaddi rested. Haaland, kept on the bench after a knock to his left foot against Ipswich, is “100% available” in Enzo Maresca’s words, at Thursday’s press conference.

The absentee list grows on both sides:

• Semenyo (City, left knee): around eight weeks out, return pencilled in for December;
• Kovacic, Nunes and O’Reilly (City): a decision after Thursday’s session; Gvardiol has shaken off his light knock;
• Onana (Villa, cruciate ligaments): long term; Wan-Bissaka (hamstring): three to four weeks; Ruggeri: around two months, per the club;
• Manzambi (Villa, calf): Emery does not know if he will make Saturday; Maatsen has returned to training.

What the price says

The market shrugs at this Villa Park record, and has leaned further towards City since Wednesday: the champions trade at 1.71 with 1xbet on Friday, from 1.76 at the open; Villa have drifted to 5.00, the draw to 4.42. My double chance, Aston Villa or draw, now shows at best 2.30 with Betano, against 2.19 when I took it on Wednesday: the market still gives Villa less than an even chance of avoiding defeat.

My bet: Villa or the draw at 2.19, half a unit

I make Villa or the draw a 49% chance. My bet is recorded at 2.19 with 1xbet, taken on Wednesday: the price implies 45.7%, the edge is there, and it is not enormous. The newer price changes neither stake nor return. City remain the best side in the country on seven weeks of evidence. Half a unit, $50: that is what the Kelly calculator advises for an edge of this size. Villa win or draw: +$59.50 net. City win: -$50.

Win or lose, this bet goes on my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

2-1: Jackson double up and City fall at Villa Park again

Aston Villa win 2-1 and hand City their first defeat of the season, after seven wins from seven in the league. Nicolas Jackson scored both goals, opening inside six minutes, and he is now on seven for the season in all competitions. Haaland started and it changed nothing: City have lost on their last four visits to Villa Park.

My Villa or draw double chance never needed the draw: $59.50 net on a $50 stake, on the public record. Taken Wednesday at 2.19, the price closed at 2.27: the market had drifted further toward City before kick-off, and Villa took no notice. Half a unit was the right price for this bet: a side on 21 points from 21, at a ground where they have not won since December 2021.