Unbeaten Brentford face a Liverpool running on empty

Ryan Gravenberch saw red in the 62nd minute against Manchester City on Sunday, and Liverpool travel on Saturday without him. Opposite them, Brentford have lost nothing: fourth, ten points, two wins and four draws. All week the market has slid towards the Bees; what is left to back is a bet to protect, not a favourite to pay for.

Liverpool play their fourth match in ten days

On Wednesday night Liverpool won 6-3 at Linz in the Champions League, with a Barcola hat-trick: the match report shows an attacking night and three goals conceded, three days after the 0-3 against City at Anfield. Andoni Iraola speaks of “four matches in ten days”: Gravenberch is suspended for one match (back on 25 October against Brighton), Bradley, Ekitike and Leoni are unavailable, and the official line-up settles the questions: Isak and Szoboszlai start, Gakpo does not, and Trey Nyoni, 19, whom the press saw starting alongside Mac Allister, does not start either.

Brentford always bring something back

Four draws in six games, two wins, and a 3-0 handed to Chelsea at the Gtech Community Stadium on 18 September. At Villa Park last Saturday, Yarmolyuk opened the scoring and Ajer equalised late: the Bees hold the score wherever they go. Kevin Schade, three goals and the club’s top scorer, forced off with a shoulder injury shortly after the restart at Villa Park, does not start; neither do Collins (calf) and Damsgaard (ankle).

The last five matches of each side:

What weighs on Saturday

• Schade, three goals: out of the official line-up; Thiago up front, with Anthony, Jensen and Ouattara around him.
• Liverpool’s midfield: without Gravenberch, but Szoboszlai and Mac Allister start together, with Wirtz and Barcola behind Isak.
• Recent history: Brentford beat Liverpool 3-2 at the Gtech in October 2025, and the sides parted on a 1-1 at Anfield in May.

The mechanism I watch: Brentford defend in a block and live on transitions; Liverpool, after Linz, will press high on heavy legs. This is the kind of match where a fresh block takes a point off a tired press.

The market has changed favourite

Brentford opened at 2.88 and traded at 2.51 on Friday morning with 1xbet; Liverpool moved from 2.50 to 2.86, and the draw is 3.75. The move says the same thing as the absentees: the status has changed camp. The double chance Brentford or draw, opened at 1.60, now trades at 1.48 with 1xbet: roughly two chances in three for the market. My bet, taken at 1.50 with Bet365 on Tuesday, sits above the current price.

My bet: Brentford or draw at 1.50

I take the double chance Brentford or draw at 1.50 with Bet365. Brentford win or hold the draw: 12.50 $ on top of a 25 $ stake; Liverpool win: 25 $ lost. I prefer to protect the draw rather than pay for the outright win of a team with only two victories, all the more as the official line-ups lean towards Liverpool: at 1.50, the market has priced in almost all of Liverpool’s fatigue, and I hold no clear edge to defend. 0.25 units, the minimum stake, and this prediction goes into the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Behind at the break, Liverpool turn it around

Brentford lost 1-2 at the Gtech Community Stadium: Lewis-Potter put the Bees in front with a header on 44 minutes, and they held until the hour. Muñoz levelled on 62 from a Wirtz pass, Isak won it for Liverpool on 70 after Barcola’s lay-off. Brentford finished with nine men, Yarmolyuk sent off just before half-time (45+8, after a VAR review), Janelt off on a second yellow in added time (90+2). The goals are all in Sky Sports’ match report.

The fatigue script never played out: Szoboszlai went off around the half-hour with a hamstring relapse, replaced by Nyoni, Frimpong followed soon after the break, and Liverpool won anyway. A first defeat of the season ends the Bees’ eight-match unbeaten run, and the fresh block never got its point.

The pick is lost: Brentford or draw at 1.50 with Bet365, the minimum $25 stake gone. By kick-off the double chance was already priced at 1.56. A $25 loss on the public record.