Third in the league, and Brighton have not beaten Palace since February 2024

The weekend’s paradox plays out at the Amex Stadium: Brighton sit third in the Premier League, thirteen points, eighteen goals scored, five conceded, and they have not beaten Crystal Palace since 3 February 2024. Four meetings since, no win, including a 0-1 at home last February. The match, pushed from Saturday to Sunday because both clubs were in European action on Thursday, lands at the best point of Hürzeler’s season.

A defence that has stopped leaking

Brighton are on three straight league wins: 5-0 at Coventry, 3-0 against Arsenal, 2-0 at Sunderland (De Cuyper, then Hadjam in stoppage time). Six games, five goals conceded. On Thursday in the Conference League, Hürzeler rotated and still won, 4-0 against Kauno Žalgiris: a Rutter double, goals from Hinshelwood, back from an ankle after two months, and O’Riley, two Osman assists. No new injuries since, Dunk is back, and Struijk, whose Sunderland red card was overturned, is eligible: Hürzeler will decide after Saturday’s training.

Palace come out of Lyon, and the travel does not stop

Crystal Palace lost 3-2 at Lyon in the Europa League on Thursday, with a near first-choice eleven where Brighton had rotated, and the run goes on: Brighton on Sunday, then Beşiktaş, then Newcastle. Pierre Sage, appointed in June to replace Oliver Glasner, lost his first two games and has won four of the six since, including 3-1 over Nottingham Forest on 11 October (Kamada, Lerma, Pino). This Palace side creates chances and finishes them badly; that is where the points leak.

The injury and suspension list, camp by camp:

• Brighton: Ferguson (ankle), Tzimas, Wieffer, Mitoma and Minteh still out; Minteh and Wieffer close to a return, Mitoma eyeing the international break.
• Crystal Palace: Riad (knee, long term) is out, Disasi serves the last game of his suspension.
• Mateta (hamstring): a call for the last training sessions, more likely from the bench; Henderson (foot) and Chilwell: to be assessed.
• Tomiyasu (calf): to be assessed, with no guarantee.

What the recent form says

Across those six games, Brighton conceded more than once only in the League Cup at Old Trafford, while Palace swing between a European 4-0 and defeat. The Eagles have won their last two visits to the Amex, 3-1 in December 2024 and 1-0 last February; that is their one solid card, and it carries weight.

The bet: Brighton to win

The market has decided: Brighton, taken at 1.63 on Thursday with 1xbet, are 1.58 this weekend: the market has followed the same reading, and my edge has melted with it. I make Brighton 65% to win: the form, a six-point gap in the table, a defence that barely concedes. The bet is plain: it wins if Brighton take the three points (+$63.20 net on one unit) and loses to a draw or a Palace win (-$100).

A full unit ($100), and I weigh it honestly: both clubs played a European night on Thursday, but the freshness now sits on Brighton’s side, and Palace have won their last two visits here. I bet anyway, because the difference sits in Brighton’s defensive consistency, five goals conceded in six games. To size your own stake, the Kelly calculator does the maths, and the result joins my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Three goals in ten minutes, the derby done by half-time

Brighton won 5-0, a first win over Crystal Palace since 3 February 2024, and it arrived in ten minutes: Canvot turning a Groß free-kick into his own net (4th), Gómez lifting the ball over the keeper from the halfway line (7th), Ayari at the end of a Kostoulas cross (10th). Kostoulas (49th) and Hinshelwood (84th) added the rest. The goal-by-goal recap is at FotMob.

The pick lands: Brighton to win at 1.63 with 1xbet, a full unit ($100) staked on the defence behind the reading. It gave nothing away: a clean sheet, five shots for Palace, still only five goals conceded in seven league games. A net $63.20 gain on the public record.