Chelsea vs Manchester United: crisis on one side, absentees on the other

Both teams lost last weekend, two very different problems. United are picking up the pieces of a 0-3 home defeat to Bournemouth: 16th place, one win in eight league games, a coach kept on while the press already names his successors. Chelsea, fifth, have absentees to manage and nothing else.

At United, the crisis precedes the match

Carrick remains in post for the trip to Stamford Bridge, as the BBC confirmed on Tuesday, while the press reports crisis meetings and names Howe and Nagelsmann as possible successors. On the pitch, the 0-3 against Bournemouth was a sixth defeat in twelve matches; United sit one point above the relegation zone. Bruno Fernandes has lived the week differently: benched against Bournemouth after his criticism, then a clear-the-air talk with his coach.

At Chelsea, the absentees arrive at the worst time

Chelsea also lost, 0-2 to Tottenham: an own goal from Penders, then, down to ten after Palmer’s red card, Tel’s goal. Alonso has to rebuild an attack without his two most creative players, and the rotation starts on Wednesday evening at Anfield, in the Carabao Cup: the coach is already thinking about United’s visit on Saturday.

• Palmer is suspended (a second yellow against Spurs); Joao Pedro (thigh) will be out for a few weeks, according to Alonso.
• Martinez (jaw) and James (knee) are unavailable; Chavarria remains a doubt.
• Emegha, back from the hamstring injury picked up in July, rejoins the group.
• United travel without Sesko (tibia) and Shaw; Rashford (hip) is a major doubt, and Mainoo only returned to full training on Wednesday.

Last April at the Bridge, a warning

United have won the last two league meetings, including 0-1 at Stamford Bridge in April. The memory stings; the present flatters less: four away trips without a win this season, across all competitions. The head-to-head:

Across the last five meetings, two wins each and a draw. Chelsea’s favouritism rests on the present, not on the past.

Chelsea to win, at the price of honesty

I make Chelsea’s win 52% likely, against the market’s 52.3%: no net edge, and at 1.902 with 1xbet this week, the odds have said their piece. The site prices the stake at the bare minimum (the Kelly calculator shows the method), 0.25 units, $25 for a $22.55 gain if Chelsea win; a draw or a United win takes the $25. Like every bet, this one goes on my public record.

My winning scenario holds together: a squad spared in the cup, an attack Emegha can lead on his return, and an opponent shipping goals everywhere. My losing scenario has happened once already: a low block, one move, 0-1, last April. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.