Glasner back at Selhurst: Crystal Palace have never beaten Nottingham Forest

Oliver Glasner is back at Selhurst Park on Sunday. He left behind an FA Cup, a Conference League and a Community Shield when he departed for Nottingham Forest this summer; Pierre Sage, formerly of Lens, took over. The welcome will be warm, and the BBC expects a hero’s reception. The stat waiting for Palace is colder: twelve Premier League meetings between the two clubs, no Palace win, eight draws, four defeats. The last three all finished 1-1.

Twelve meetings, zero wins, three 1-1 draws in a row

The run describes a fixture that refuses to settle: twenty goals in twelve meetings, under two per match, and five of the last six at Selhurst ended level. Palace have not won a home league game since April.

The last five meetings, all in the Premier League:

Two blunt attacks, two busy treatment rooms

Palace sit 15th on four points, Forest 13th on five, and both attacks have stalled: six league goals for Palace in five rounds, four for Forest. On Friday the London club settled it: Mateta, Henderson and Tomiyasu will all three miss Sunday, with a return targeted for 18 October; Disasi still serves his suspension after his red card against Ipswich, and Riad (knee) targets 2027. Two returns, though: Khalaili, recovered from the injury picked up with Israel, starts, and Ismaïla Sarr, eight minutes of football since August, is fit but does not start. The official team sheet settles the back line: Richards, Lerma and Canvot, no Ahanor, in a 3-4-2-1 with Strand Larsen leading the line.

At Forest, Milenkovic will miss the match: bone bruising from a collision in training, and a defender who cannot train. Igor Jesus (calf) is out for a few weeks, Neco Williams, feverish on his return from international duty, starts anyway, and Savona, still recovering from knee surgery, remains sidelined.

A market that refuses to pick a side

On the eve of the match the 1X2 stays tight: 2.79 for Palace, 3.49 for the draw, 2.70 for Forest at 1xbet, a slight drift towards Forest since Wednesday. On goals, the price has moved: under 2.5 has gone from 1.93 to 2.00, while the over came back to 1.94. A Forest back line without Milenkovic, attacking returns at Palace: the bookmakers see the match a touch more open than at the start of the week.

My bet: two goals or fewer, 0.5 units

My bet, recorded on Wednesday: under 2.5 goals at 1.93 with 1xbet. The price has drifted since; the bet stays as it is. At 1.93, the market gives two goals or fewer just over an even chance; I make it 55 %. What tilts me: two attacks scoring this little, a Palace without Mateta until 18 October, and a run of meetings stuck on the same score. What holds me back: Forest without Milenkovic, and a goals market that still expects both ends to score, both teams to score at 1.70. The official line-ups, out on Sunday, back that read.

The gap stays modest and the stake says so: 0.5 units, $50. In practice: 0, 1 or 2 goals, the bet pays $46.45; three goals or more, it loses $50. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose. The staking rule can be worked out with the Kelly calculator; the bet will go on the public record as it stands, win or lose.

Three Palace goals, a first in thirteen meetings

Final score: Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest. Ndoye had put Forest ahead as early as the 3rd minute, and the series said otherwise: twelve Premier League meetings without a Palace win, eight draws, three straight 1-1s. Kamada on 41, Lerma on 45+4 and Pino on 59 turned the match either side of half time. It is Palace’s first win over Forest in thirteen attempts, and three goals, half their league tally for the season, in a single afternoon.

The bet died at 45+4, on Lerma’s goal, the third of the match: under 2.5 goals at 1.93 with 1xbet, 0.5 units, $50 lost. The market had warned me, the under had drifted from 1.93 to 2.00 by the end of the week: it saw the game opening, with Palace’s attacking returns and no Milenkovic at the back for Forest. It opened, four goals: my two stalled attacks woke up at once, and Palace’s scored three of them.