Unbeaten in six, Everton host a Chelsea side the market has backed since the 5-1

The 5-1 has already been priced in

On 10 October, Chelsea put five past Bournemouth, including a João Pedro double. The price on a Chelsea win has dropped by about 9% since the market opened: 2.446, then 2.229. On the other side stands the only unbeaten team in the Premier League: Everton, two wins, four draws, no defeat, ten points like Chelsea, at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday with Paul Tierney in charge.

Moyes has built the hardest team to beat

David Moyes’ block has conceded five goals in six games, scoring eight. On Sunday it held Hull again, 2-2; before the break, it drew at Tottenham and against Manchester United, and beat Ipswich 1-0. Four draws in six games also draw this team’s ceiling: they do not lose, and they do not always win either.

Around the dressing room, owners The Friedkin Group announced on 9 October that they are exploring a sale of the club; Moyes said he was surprised, and his squad remains “very short” for Saturday’s home game.

The teams are in:

• Everton, 4-2-3-1: Pickford; Maitland-Niles, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Garner, Armstrong, Röhl, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish; Barry up front.
• Chelsea, 3-4-2-1: Martínez; Acheampong, Lacroix, Colwill; Neto, Henderson, Caicedo, Hato; Palmer and Rogers behind João Pedro.
• Reece James (knee) and Gittens (ankle) miss the game; Emegha (muscle), whom the Standard rated possible for Saturday, does not start.

Chelsea strike early and concede almost as much

Chelsea’s official preview frames the collision: six of their fifteen goals have come inside the first seven minutes, five opening goals in six games, three minutes in on average. At the other end, fourteen Everton high recoveries have led to a shot, for a single goal.

The defence has conceded thirteen in the same span. This Chelsea plays without a safety net: 6-3 against Leeds in the Cup, but also 0-3 at Brentford and 1-2 at Arsenal. The 2-2 against Hull in September showed the same match turned on its head.

History favours Chelsea, the last match favoured Everton

Of the last five meetings, Everton have won only the most recent, 3-0 last March. Before that, Chelsea had taken three of them, a 6-0 included.

The market followed the 5-1, maybe a little too much

A Chelsea win has moved from 2.446 to 2.229 on Sunday’s reading, and draw-no-bet on Chelsea trades at 1.60. Everton have drifted from 3.00 to 3.25 with 10BET on Thursday’s reading. At 1.733 for Everton or draw, Sunday’s price with 1xbet, the market gives that scenario 56%. The Squawka preview even tips Chelsea to win 1-2 while calling Everton the bet to take.

My bet: Everton or draw

I take the double chance Everton or draw at 1.733 with 1xbet, a price recorded on Sunday, in regular time. If Everton win or draw, the bet pays $18.33 net on a $25 stake; a Chelsea win loses it. I give Everton or draw 60%, against 56% for the market: the gap is thin, and so is the stake, 0.25 units. The bet wins if Moyes’ block holds for a seventh game and if the Chelsea defence leaves spaces again; the danger sits right after kick-off, because Chelsea have hardly ever waited to open the scoring this season, and Everton rarely finish the chances their pressing creates. Today’s line-ups back the bet: Mykolenko, a doubt all week, keeps his place.

The Kelly calculator details the logic of the stake; my past picks, won and lost, are on the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

A Neto double and a first Everton defeat: 0-2

The danger only waited for the restart: in the 46th minute Jorrel Hato cut the ball back and Pedro Neto opened the scoring; in the 90th, a free kick deflected off the wall gave him his first Premier League double. Everton barely threatened, Chelsea kept their first clean sheet in 22 games, and the six-game unbeaten run ended there, as So Foot’s match report notes.

The Everton or draw double chance at 1.733 with 1xbet, the minimum $25 stake, is lost: a Chelsea win was the one result that killed it, and it happened, a $25 loss. The market had moved my way by the close, at 1.72, and it was wrong along with me.