Liverpool vs Manchester City: City favourites at Anfield, and the injury list explains the price

Manchester City arrive at Anfield with a case hanging over them: an independent commission has found the club guilty of 114 of the 115 financial charges brought by the Premier League, and the appeal is under way. The reception waiting on Merseyside will be frosty. On the pitch the trend is even sharper: City have won the last three meetings between the two, nine goals to one.

A perfect leader against an unbeaten side letting points go

The table lays out the paradox: City first with five wins from five league games, Liverpool sixth, unbeaten as well, six points back. Liverpool do not lose, and they let three games in five slip: three league draws. City, for their part, run seven straight wins in all competitions, are unbeaten in their last ten league away games, and kept a clean sheet in four of their last five outings.

Three meetings, three City wins

Liverpool’s last win in this fixture dates from December 2024. In February City won at Anfield; in April they put four past Liverpool in the FA Cup, at home. The trend points firmly toward Manchester.

Liverpool’s injury list outweighs City’s absences

Liverpool go into the game shorthanded:

• Ekitike (Achilles tendon, return hoped for around December) and Bradley (knee) will not play;
• Leoni, back from a cruciate ligament rupture, rejoins full training on 12 October: too soon for this match;
• Isak (thigh) and Gakpo (ankle) are out; Chiesa (back) and Jacquet (hamstring) were the two question marks left.

Andoni Iraola settled it on Friday: “Alex and Cody won’t play. They’re not ready.” Liverpool’s XI follows: Jacquet, doubtful all week, starts in central defence alongside van Dijk, and Koumas leads the line, with Barcola, Wirtz and Víctor Muñoz around him; Chiesa is not on the teamsheet. City, meanwhile, are getting clearer: Maresca starts Haaland, nothing more than fatigue after Norway; Foden sits out the last game of his ban before returning against PSG on 14 October, and both doubts are gone: Semenyo and O’Reilly start.

What the price says: the market has moved further toward City

Since Wednesday the market has kept sliding City’s way: the champions have gone from 2.67 to 2.355 with 1xbet, Liverpool have drifted from 2.65 to 3.005, the draw is 3.875, and the City-or-draw double chance has come down from 1.546 to 1.443. On Friday Isak and Gakpo were confirmed out: the reading does not change sides.

At 1.546 for City or draw, the price breaks even at 64.7%. I make this double chance 67%: the fixture has belonged to City for nearly two years, and this weekend’s absences are mostly red ones.

City or draw at 1.546: 0.75 of a unit

I take City or draw at 1.546 with 1xbet, the price the pick was recorded at on Thursday: a City win or a draw pays +$40.95 on a $75 stake; a Liverpool win loses the $75. The same double chance stands at 1.443 this Saturday: the market has come round to this reading and Thursday’s gap has closed, with no change to the bet or the stake. Winning at Anfield would still be the demanding outcome; the double chance keeps me the draw, Liverpool’s most frequent league result. Three quarters of a unit, sized with the Kelly calculator. This pick will sit in the public record, won or lost. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Down to ten, City roll: the bet wins without the draw

Final score: Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City. The match turned on 62 minutes, on a second yellow for Gravenberch; Andoni Iraola called it the turning point, “we were the better team until the red card”. Haaland (65), Doku (68) and Cherki (78) then closed out a game City already controlled, the third goal at the end of a 41-pass move. A first defeat of the season for Liverpool, nine points off the leader; City hold eighteen points from six games, three clear of Arsenal, and win twice in a row at Anfield in the league for the first time since 1953.

The bet wins, and its insurance went unused: City or draw, the double chance taken at 1.546 on Thursday with 1xbet, three quarters of a unit, +$40.95 on the $75 staked. I kept the draw as the most frequent Liverpool outcome in the league; City did not need it. The bet only lost on a Liverpool win, and Liverpool never led. The $40.95 goes to the public record.