Nottingham Forest v Arsenal: a silent City Ground, two straight 0-0 draws

Four outings at the City Ground this season, all competitions, zero goals scored. Oliver Glasner put it plainly in early October: one home win in 2026, and a lack of efficiency in the final third. On Sunday the side 15th in the Premier League host the side second, five days after Arsenal put three past Lille in the Champions League. Match eve brought a worry from the home dressing room: Morgan Gibbs-White has not been able to train all week.

Gibbs-White and Milenkovic out of the starting eleven

Glasner sets up a deep block and counts the points: a 0-0 with Tottenham, a 2-2 at Liverpool either side of the win at Aston Villa (2-1), then two defeats, 0-1 at home to Coventry and 1-3 at Crystal Palace. The local press project Delap over Wood up front.

The injury list has shifted in three days. Savona (knee, out since January) will miss the game, Igor Jesus (calf) needs a few weeks; Neco Williams started at Palace and is off the doubtful list. Milenkovic (bone bruise) trained with the group on Friday for the first time in weeks; Glasner saw him “in the squad, but let’s see how he reacts”: the official lineup leaves him out.

Morgan Gibbs-White carries much of this attack: seventeen chances created, the squad’s leading passer. Glasner plays it down: “The injury doesn’t look very serious. We have a chance he is available”.

Arsenal win everywhere except the City Ground

Five wins and one defeat in six matchdays, Saka on three goals, the 3-0 over Lille in the Champions League on Tuesday: Arsenal are rolling. But under Arteta they have won once in five visits to the City Ground, in January 2024, and the last two trips there both finished 0-0.

Saliba (back) has a scan next week and aims at a November return, Hincapie (ankle) needs another week or two, Tzolis (thigh) a few weeks. Zubimendi (ankle) feels “much, much better”: a decision at the last minute, leaning towards yes. Saka is over his illness and available again.

Bayern arrive on Wednesday in the Champions League. Arteta dismisses the idea of looking ahead: “the beautiful challenge is Forest away”.

• Forest’s official XI: Sels; Jair, Diomande, Murillo; Muñoz, Schlager, Domínguez, Williams; McAtee, Ndoye; Delap.
• Arsenal’s official XI: Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Guimarães; Saka, Ødegaard and Eze; Havertz.
• Against the local press, Gibbs-White, Aina and Sangare all miss out: Schlager and Domínguez take the midfield, Jair the back three.

A 2.5-goal line easing towards the under

The market has moved since the opening: Arsenal are 1.71 at 1xbet on Saturday morning, against 1.66; Forest have shortened to 5.80 and the draw to 4.00. The 2.5-goal line has gone the same way: the under is 1.949 at the latest reading, against 1.97 at the opening, and the over is up to 1.99. Both teams to score is 1.91 for yes. At the City Ground, Arsenal’s last three visits have produced zero, zero and three goals.

My bet: under 2.5 goals, 0.75 units

The bet has been in since Thursday: under 2.5 goals at 1.97 at 1xbet, giving a match of two goals or fewer a 54 per cent chance, against the market’s 50. 0, 1 or 2 goals: $72.75 net. 3 goals or more: the $75 stake is lost.

0.75 units: the Kelly calculator sets out the logic, and every bet is tracked in our public record. The bet loses if the Arsenal of the Lille game turn up: this team can settle a match on its own. It wins if Forest stay mute at home and the game settles into waiting, like the last two 0-0s here. Gibbs-White’s confirmed absence weighs the right way: one creator fewer is one home threat fewer. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

0-1: Madueke breaks a silent game open

Arsenal won 1-0 at Nottingham with a Noni Madueke goal in the 80th minute, a shot deflected off Jair Cunha after a Declan Rice lay-off. On at half-time for Eze, the winger unblocked a tight game that had gone through a first half without a shot on target. Forest had the chances to level, Wood then Murillo deep in stoppage time, and took neither. The Evening Standard report has the rest.

The script of the bet, almost word for word: a silent City Ground, a game settling into waiting, like the two 0-0 draws of Arsenal’s last two visits here. Forest still cannot score at home, a third straight defeat drops them into the relegation zone; Arsenal move up to second, three points behind Manchester City.

The pick is won: one goal in all, under 2.5 goals at 1.97 with 1xbet was never in danger. A $72.75 gain, three quarters of a unit, on the public record.