RC Toulon v Section Paloise: the form is Pau’s, the price is Toulon’s

Sunday night at the Hameau, the Section saw off Leicester 41-17 in the Champions Cup, five tries and a starting XV close to first choice. Six days later they travel to Mayol, and this time the market follows them: 2.90 with Betway on Friday, from 3.40 at the open. Toulon have drifted the other way, from 1.38 to 1.50 with Betano. The money is going with the Bearnais form. The handicap remains my ground.

Second on 22 points, and nobody fancies facing them

Pau sit second, 22 points, five wins from six, the only defeat at Lyon. Two of those wins came away from the Hameau. The attack does not pick its ground either: it runs at nearly forty points a match, home or away. This side does not travel to defend.

Six rounds, two trajectories

Toulon live the season the other way round: tenth, 12 points, two wins, four defeats, both wins at Mayol. But Toulon pull away from nobody: three of the four defeats fell by one or two points, and Mayol has already let one slip. A team that plays every match close protects an outsider on the handicap. A favourite asked to win by seven exposes every imprecision.

Friday for Toulon, Sunday for Pau

The schedule is the market’s case. Toulon opened their European campaign in Edinburgh on Friday, a 27-17 win, two second-half tries from Jaminet. The Section played Sunday night, a full match, then face the trip to the Var for a 9pm kick-off with a day less recovery. I note it, it matters. It is not worth six and a half points on its own.

Toulon finally field their back row, Pau still look for their half-backs

This Friday night Toulon published their line-up: Sinckler in the front row, Ribbans in the second, Mercer, Ollivon and Ludlam in the back row, the English captain in charge. The White-Albornoz half-backs stay, Jaminet completes the XV at full-back. Gaël Fickou is not in the 23; the club gives no reason and I will not invent one.

The medical bulletins of 22 October name the absentees:

• Toulon: Cancoriet (dislocated right shoulder, out for months) and Rayan Rebbadj (a quad niggle) will not play, nor will Tana Keletaona, who hurt his ankle with the U23s.
• Pau: Decron had ankle surgery on Tuesday; Couty, Hewat, Maddocks, L. Rey and Tlili are unavailable as well.
• The Pau half-backs are the unknown: Daubagna is rested (muscular pain), Simmonds (hip) is only back in training, and the Section had named no XV by Friday night.

Pau +6.5 at 1.85: a bet that asks for no miracle

The supporters voted before the market did: the LNR fan poll puts Pau at 64 per cent. In the last five meetings the home side have always won, three times Toulon, twice the Section. I leave the winner alone: my bet has been in since Tuesday, Section Paloise +6.5 at 1.85 with Unibet.

The outcomes are simple. Pau win, draw or lose by six points or fewer: the bet lands, $21.25 profit on a $25 stake. Pau lose by seven points or more: lost, no way back. On this line a draw pays like a win and there is no refund.

The main line has moved from -6.5 to -5.5 since Tuesday: my +6.5 starts a point better than the current price. I still make the cover 59 per cent; the odds I took on Tuesday implied barely more than one in two. The edge is real but thin, the line was priced by Unibet alone and the margin tops 8 per cent: quarter Kelly falls to its floor, 0.25 units, $25, the maths sits in the Kelly calculator. No second bet: the outright Pau win tells the same story and pays the idea badly.

If the Section hold the set piece, they hold within six points. The bet goes on the public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

41-20: Jaminet’s first-half hat-trick shut the game early

Toulon answered inside the first half: Melvyn Jaminet scored a hat-trick there, and the Section never saw the six-point line again. Toulon win by twenty-one, 41-20, a third straight success after Racing 92 and Edinburgh. Fabien Brau-Boirie went off with a left knee injury, on the eve of joining the Bleus at Marcoussis.

My bet is lost, clean. Section Paloise +6.5, taken on Tuesday at 1.85 with Unibet, needed a defeat by six points at most: it conceded twenty-one, and the $25 goes on the public record. My case was a Toulon side that plays every game tight, and a favourite forced to win by seven, exposed at every imprecision. Toulon exposed nothing tonight, they rolled. The line was never in the game.