Toulon vs Racing 92: one win in five, and still 1.25 at Mayol

On Sunday night at La Mosson, Toulon came home without scoring: 28-0. Five days later, the market prices them lower still than when the bet went in: 1.25 with Betway on Thursday evening, to host Racing. One win in five rounds, thirteenth place, eight points: the price is not following the form line.

Mignoni gone, and Mayol paid in advance

Toulon have won a single match this season: 28-10 over Vannes on 26 September, with the attacking bonus. The rest is four defeats, the heaviest on Sunday. On BFM Toulon, Luca Licata describes an “alarming” collective, lineouts lost and balls spilled. Two days later the director of rugby left: Pierre Mignoni, gone on 6 October, and Franck Azéma takes the group. The new man’s first squad, announced on Thursday, sweeps through: nine in, eight out; Baubigny, Cancoriet, Gigashvili, Ludlam, Brex and Huw Jones return, Jaminet does not feature. The sickbay stays busy:

• Slimani, broken thumb at Castres, several weeks out;
• Frisch, calf, back to collective training next week;
• Abadie and Swan Rebbadj, rested after concussions;
• Villière, Domon, Dréan, Halagahu and Priso, in reconditioning.

A staff in transition, a squad turned over: Mayol does not win matches on its own, and the team occupying it sits thirteenth.

Racing ran in eight tries on Saturday

Racing 92, tenth on ten points, just put 55 past Perpignan at Créteil (55-25, eight tries, attacking bonus). Away from home, everything and its opposite: 5-64 at Bordeaux in round one, then a 20-10 win at La Rochelle. The Parisian press sees a team “getting its colours back”. Patrice Collazo returns to Mayol, where he coached the RCT from 2018 to 2021: the man makes the week’s headlines, and I expect nothing calculable from that. His squad for Mayol is not out by Friday: nothing to take from that for the analysis.

Five days of recovery against seven

Toulon played Sunday at 9:05pm, Racing on Saturday: five days to recover, against seven, with a lineout that has just collapsed at La Mosson. After round six the league pauses: Racing travel to Munster in the Champions Cup on 17 October, Toulon rest. The last five matches for both sides:

My pick: Racing 92 +9.5 at 1.80

At 1.25, Toulon’s straight win pays nothing; at 4.50, a Racing win asks for an away exploit their travels have yet to justify. I keep the margin taken on 5 October: Racing 92 +9.5 at 1.80 with Bet365. Racing win, draw or lose by nine points or fewer: the bet lands, $20 on a $25 stake. They lose by ten points or more: the stake is gone.

I give Racing 56% of staying in the match; at 1.80 the market made it a touch over 55% when the bet went in. Since then the main line has moved to -10.5, and my +9.5 now shows 1.85 with Unibet: the market hardened towards Toulon, and the bet gains no value. Two caveats, stated plainly: the margin on this market stays fat, and once my probability is set against the market’s, the edge disappears. Hence the minimum stake, 0.25 units, $25, with no bargain claimed. Size the stake to your bankroll with the Kelly calculator and follow my picks on the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

29-15: Albornoz did the rest with the boot

Toulon won 29-15 at Mayol, their first win since Pierre Mignoni left. The RCT were in trouble early on: a messy, undisciplined start, before tries from Gros (15th) and Baubigny (27th) took them in front; Gibert replied for Racing on the half-hour, 14-7 at the break. In the second half Albornoz ran the game with the boot: five penalties, and Hughes’ try (71st) came too late.

My Racing 92 +9.5 at 1.80 with Bet365 is lost by 4.5 points. Racing held the line until the hour: 17-10 in the 55th minute, before the Albornoz boot broke the margin open (23-10 in the 63rd, 26-10 in the 68th). Chances let go by the visitors, a brave Toulon side: the stake was minimal, $25, with no bargain claimed. It is lost, and the record logs it.