Toulouse vs Bayonne: two points apart in the table, twenty-eight in the market

Two points separate Toulouse and Bayonne in the Top 14 table; twenty-eight points separate them in the market. First hosts third on Sunday evening at Ernest-Wallon, in front of a sell-out crowd, to close round six, and the bookmakers have already folded the match: Toulouse at 1.01, a line at −27.5. I do not see it that tidy.

The Wallon gives nothing away

The recent head-to-head tells two stories: at the Wallon, Toulouse have always had the final word; at home, the Basques have won the last two meetings.

Bayonne are rolling, Toulouse keep winning

Three straight wins for the Aviron: Clermont put away 46-24, Racing beaten on the road 20-17, Stade Français passed 35-32. The lineout runs at an 85% success rate with a new system and four signings in the pack, and Arthur Iturria, back from a hamstring injury, is closing on his first team sheet of the season. Toulouse have not lost since the opening round at La Rochelle (30-27): four wins in a row, including an 8-7 win scraped on the road at Castres with a rotated side.

The front-liners rested against Castres returned to training with the group this week, Dupont, Ntamack, Baille, Flament and Brennan first, l’Opinion reports. For Bayonne, Sud Ouest expects a reshaped XV: Orabé returns from suspension, but captain Tuilagi, Geraci and Tiberghien are rested, and Capilla starts at number eight against his future club. The LNR team sheet was still blank on Saturday evening: nothing official before Sunday.

A treatment room close to full

The rest of the Toulouse squad is still in the treatment room:

• Ramos (thigh) and Willis are out, and Jelonch has joined them on the absent list: the return hoped for early in the week is off.
• Mauvaka, Kinghorn, Barassi, Ainu’u, Delpy and Hawkes remain unavailable.
• Meafou, Vergé and Epée are long-term absentees; La Dépêche counts about twenty injured players at the club.

The line, not the winner

At 1.01 with Betway, Toulouse are not buyable: there is nothing to take. The draw trades at 49 and Bayonne at 25 with 1xbet on Saturday, a price that opened at 21: the market sees the match ever more one-sided. The handicap line, −27.5, has not followed: 1.90 both ways, quoted by only three bookmakers. The market doubts Bayonne winning, not the closeness of the score. A thin market, at unfriendly prices: worth saying before I step in.

I make Bayonne 60% to win or lose by twenty-seven points at most; at 1.90, the price implies a little over 52. The rugby says a team lying third, scoring freely and winning 85% of its lineouts, does not lose by twenty-eight points in most scenarios, even at the Wallon. Stake: 1.5 units, $150. Won: +$135. Lost: −$150 if Toulouse win by twenty-eight points or more. The Kelly calculator shows how the stake was sized. One last note: Exeter await Toulouse eight days later in the Champions Cup, but the front-liners return precisely for this match.

The pick goes into my public record, to stand or fall. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Seven tries at the Wallon, eleven points in it: the line holds

Final score: Toulouse 45-34 Bayonne, with the attacking bonus: seven Toulouse tries, a double from Dupont (11, 73), Baille (3), Marchand twice (25, 34), Brennan (59) and Romain Ntamack (67), who added five conversions. The Wallon still gives nothing back: Toulouse take back first place, 24 points. But the Basques played their chance: after the Baille try at 5-0, they went in front as far as 12-20 on a Segonds penalty, and a Lucas Martin try was ruled out for a hand on the ground just before the break (40+2). After the restart, a yellow card for Menoncello, then three Toulouse tries in fifteen minutes (59, 67, 73), settled it. Bayonne leave fifth, with four tries: Maqala, Spring, Cramont, Carreras.

The bet lands, never in danger: Bayonne +27.5 at 1.90 with 1xbet, one and a half units, +$135 on the $150 staked. I said the Wallon would give nothing back: it gave nothing back. I also said a team lying third who score everywhere do not lose by twenty-eight points: Bayonne scored everywhere, eleven points in it, sixteen and a half inside the line. The last quarter of an hour from Toulouse sent the score running, and the line followed. The $135 goes to the public record.