Fritz vs Hijikata: the Turin chase starts with a lucky loser

On Sunday in Lyon Taylor Fritz lost the final 6-3, 6-4 to Lorenzo Musetti. On Wednesday in Basel he is back on court, first round, against Rinky Hijikata, a lucky loser from qualifying. It is also his 29th birthday.

An opponent who came in at the last minute

Hijikata lost his final qualifying match to Yannick Hanfmann on Sunday, and he only entered the draw when Stefanos Tsitsipas, Fritz’s scheduled opponent, withdrew with a right shoulder injury. Basel lost Tsitsipas, Bublik and Davidovich Fokina within a few hours, and the sixth seed’s path opened accordingly. Fritz leads their only meeting, 6-3, 6-3 in Delray Beach in 2024.

The lucky loser arrives out of form: a first-round exit in Almaty on 20 October, another in Shanghai on the 7th. His season stays decent, 34 wins in 63 matches, but the bottom of the Basel draw is exactly where his level sits right now.

The Lyon week still weighs

Four matches in seven days for Fritz in Lyon, including a spectacular fall against Herbert that he called the hardest of his career, with no visible consequence afterwards. The knee? He has carried tendinitis since the spring, the one that bothered him at Wimbledon, and nothing new has come out of Basel. The motivation is written down instead: 12th in the race to Turin, Fritz is playing for his ATP Finals ticket, on a fast indoor court built for his serve: 82.2% of service games held over his last ten matches, and the best ace rate of the field this season.

Their recent matches:

Why I am not betting

On Tuesday evening Fritz trades at 1.12 with BetMGM, Hijikata 7.00 with Bet365. The winner is priced out of reach, which leaves the margin lines: the 21.5-game total barely leans, and the 4.5-game handicap offers 1.85 on the Australian. That was the only plausible angle, giving him four and a half games in a match where Fritz manages his return two days after a Sunday final. I made it 58%; with my confidence trimmed, my number falls back onto the 54% the price already shows. No gap, no bet.

No bet on the Basel opener. The staking method does not force itself, and my public record gains nothing from an invented bet; the market has weighed this match well. If you bet anyway: 18+, only bet what you can afford to lose.