Mensik vs Mannarino: the market has forgotten Queen’s

The day before this Vienna last-16, Adrian Mannarino needed two hours and twenty-eight minutes to come back on Ignacio Buse: 0-6, 7-5, 6-4, after losing the first set 6-0. On Monday Jakub Mensik had dispatched Lukas Neumayer 6-2, 6-2 in one hour and three minutes. The two meet at the Wiener Stadthalle and the market has already made up its mind: 1.225 for the Czech, almost eight times out of ten.

Queen’s, a precedent the price ignores

On 16 June Mannarino beat Mensik 5-7, 7-6, 7-6 in 2 hr 44, at Queen’s. That was on grass, a different surface, and I do not read it as a prophecy. That match says two things: the left-handed serve troubles the Czech’s return, and that day the gap between the two came down to two tie-breaks.

Mensik has grown steadier since: world No. 16, out in the Shanghai last 16 before Vienna. Mannarino sits far lower, with 21 wins in 53 matches this season. Behind their serves, though, the two are closer than their records suggest: over his last ten matches Mensik holds 81% of his service games, Mannarino 73.6%. On that basis the match is tight, a long way from the market’s eight in ten.

Three matches in four days, at 38

Mannarino came to Vienna through qualifying: Tirante on the 24th, Molcan on the 25th, Buse on the 27th, on top of Almaty the week before and the travel in between. At 38 that schedule is as much a factor as the serve: 87 games played in seven days, including a three-set comeback the day before.

Their recent matches:

Three things to watch:

• Mannarino’s second serve when his legs get heavy: 73.6% of service games held over his last ten matches is the gap Mensik’s return will go after.
• The price of the previous day’s marathon: 2 hr 28 on court at 38 gets paid in the third set, not the first.
• The tie-break: Mannarino plays one in about six sets at the moment, Mensik one in eight.

What the market says

On Tuesday evening Mensik trades at 1.225 with 1xbet, Mannarino 5.00 with Bet365, and neither price has moved much since the open. The market is not debating the Czech’s win, only its size: the four-game handicap is priced dead level, 1.85 against 1.86, and the 22-game total barely leans. Everyone sees the same match, a favourite who wins without pulling away.

My pick: Mannarino +4.5 games at 1.83

The straight win at 5.00 does not interest me: same reading of the match, no margin in the price. I take the handicap. Mannarino +4.5 games at 1.83 with Bet365 wins if he finishes no more than four games behind Mensik: 6-4, 6-4 is enough, so is 7-5, 7-6, and a win is better still. It loses as soon as Mensik pulls five games clear. A retirement means the stake is refunded.

On service games alone, Mannarino would deserve more than four and a half games of leeway; fatigue is what makes me cut his account: I give him a 60% chance, the price implies 56.5%. Two units, $200, for $166 of profit: the gap is enough to work out the stake in units, and this pick joins my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.