Osaka back in Tokyo after four years, against wildcard Pohankova

Four years since Tokyo last watched her play. Naomi Osaka came back on Tuesday like someone returning home: 6-3 7-6(4) over Paolini in 1 hr 37, seven aces, thirty winners, a crowd on its feet for every point, as the match report of the evening noted. She even stood at 0-40 down in the second set before saving seven of the nine break points she faced. Not the stroll the scoreline suggests.

Seven years on from her 2019 title here, she is treating this comeback the way she would a Grand Slam, and credits motherhood for her calm today (she told the local press as much). Ariake answered from the first round. What is left is a last-16 match against a player this draw was not expecting.

Pohankova’s record fits in three lines, and that is the problem

Mia Pohankova, 18 years old and ranked 145th, beat the qualifier Valentova 6-1 6-4 on Tuesday on a side court. The two players have never met. The Slovak’s career record fits in three lines (full career here):

• her career result on tour: a Wuhan last 16 in early October, with wins over Bondar and Xiyu Wang before the clean 1-6 4-6 exit against Sakkari;
• a career built on the ITF and WTA 125 circuits: 53 wins for 24 losses, two minor titles, barely over 100,000 dollars in prize money;
• her service and return numbers, flattering as they look, were mostly taken from second-division opponents.

On the outdoor hard court at Ariake she has enough to trouble anyone: she has won 40% of her return games over her last ten matches. Almost all of those were taken a floor below this tournament, against players who are not in this draw. The floor of the day, Osaka has it to herself.

At 1.29, the gap is already in the price

The market read that file faster than I did. Osaka is priced at 1.29 with Unibet this Wednesday, Pohankova at 4.25 with Betway, and the Slovak’s line has already drifted from 4.00 to 4.25 since opening. At 1.29 the home player gets a little under four chances in five; the exact probability behind any odds can be worked out, margin removed, with this tool. Nothing in the makeup of this match pushes me to argue with that price.

No bet: the price has already said what I had to say

I will happily watch this one without betting it. At 1.29 the winner market leaves nothing to take, and the game lines are built on the same gap, with wider margins than the match winner: when no price looks wrong to me, I do not stake. This last 16 will not add to my public record, and sometimes that is the best position to take.

One caveat to finish: Tokyo expects an overcast Thursday around 15 degrees, the forecasts disagree on the rain, and a retractable roof can change the conditions along the way. The order of play was not out yet as I write. And if you do bet on this tennis, only stake what you can afford to lose. 18+.