Rakhimova vs Alexandrova: at 1.34, the market has already called it

The strangest last sixteen in the Tokyo draw will indeed open Wednesday on Center Court, from 10.30 am local time: the order of play published on Tuesday evening confirms it. Kamilla Rakhimova, ranked 67th, plays her first match of the week without having contested a single round of the main draw. Beaten on Sunday in the final round of qualifying by Aliaksandra Sasnovich, she was reprieved as a lucky loser after the withdrawals of Belinda Bencic (right ankle) and Maja Chwalinska (left thigh), the fourth and second seeds. Bencic’s bye fell to her, so this last sixteen is her opening match.

A rested lucky loser against a favourite already in rhythm

The entry cuts both ways. Rakhimova has not played since Sunday: two full days of rest, fresh legs. She still walks into a WTA 500 last sixteen with no match rhythm, on courts where she only played qualifying. Across the net, Ekaterina Alexandrova, ranked 33rd, saw off Ann Li 6-4 6-4 in Tuesday’s first round: less freshness, but a win in her legs and a serve already in working order.

Their last two weeks tell the same story:

Alexandrova’s serve against Rakhimova’s return

Alexandrova wins her matches on serve: 69.5% of service games won this season, and a controlled first round against Ann Li. The rest is thinner: 29.8% of return games won, five tie-breaks won against nine lost over twelve months. If the match tightens, that record weighs.

Rakhimova is the opposite profile: 43.9% of return games won across her last ten matches, against 62.2% on serve. That appetite in the return game is the real threat to the favourite, with one caveat: those ten matches include qualifying against much lower-ranked players, which flatters the average.

• Rakhimova’s freshness: two days without a match, but no rhythm tested on this court.
• Alexandrova’s load: a second consecutive playing day, a first round played on Tuesday.
• The conditions: the main draw plays outdoors, while Rakhimova went through qualifying partly on a covered court.

A head-to-head that says nothing any more

Their paths crossed once: the 2021 US Open, a 6-4 6-1 win for Rakhimova. Same family of surface, outdoor hard, but five years ago, against a very different Alexandrova. I draw no lesson from it for Wednesday.

At 1.34, a favourite priced about right

The market called it early: Alexandrova at 1.34 with Unibet at best, close to three chances in four of going through, Rakhimova at 3.50 with Betway. The winner odds have not moved since opening, which is rare on a draw shaken by withdrawals. At that price I cannot see where the market is wrong: the likeliest script remains Alexandrova’s serve ruling until a tie-break, her least secure territory.

No bet: the market read this match well

I lean towards Alexandrova, the steadier server and the one already in rhythm. The price carries all of it: the lucky loser’s freshness, her break points, even the risk of a tight set. At 1.34, neither the winner market nor the game lines leave me a clear gap from my own reading. When I find an edge, I size the stake with the Kelly calculator and track it on the public record; here there is nothing to size. And if you bet on this match anyway, only stake what you can afford to lose.