Shanghai: Musetti falls to world No. 277 Zhou Yi

Lorenzo Musetti is out of the Shanghai Masters in the second round, beaten 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 by Zhou Yi in 2 hours 28 minutes. The Chinese player, 21, in the draw on a wild card and ranked 277th, has the biggest win of his career. I had taken Musetti at 1.20 for this match: the bet is lost, it costs a quarter of a unit, and it stays on the public record.

The scoreline misleads. Zhou converted none of his two break points, and the only break of the match went to Musetti, that service game taken in the second set (6-3). The loser even won more points, 108 to 98. The difference came on the important points: 14 aces to 5, no double fault from the Chinese, two tie-breaks taken 9-7 and 7-1, according to the match statistics.

An odds-on favourite with no edge

Seven bookmakers priced Musetti around 1.22. My own probability did not exceed the market’s, so the stake was minimal, and the match preview said so before the first ball. A defeat at that price is recorded, not chased: the answer is never to raise the stakes at the next tournament.

An injury-free end to the season

Musetti was coming back from a fractured finger in his hand, an injury that had forced him out of the Japan Open. After the match he told Sky Sport: “The main goal now is to try to finish the year without further injuries. The central problem of this season has been exactly that: too many stops that have slowed my progress, both in the rankings and in my game.” And for 2027: “I want to take back the place that belongs to me in the rankings.”

Zhou Yi now waits for Hubert Hurkacz in the third round, the man who just beat Djokovic. A 21-year-old serving like that in front of his home crowd in Shanghai will not be an easy opponent.

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.